Let China slumber, when she wakes, the world will be shocked.
In an article published on July 23, Bloomberg commentator John O’Sis quoted this widely circulated but questionable "Napoleon quote" and lamented that China might be shaking the world once again. However, unlike in the past when it rose through manufacturing, this time China's impact comes from cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence.
In an article titled "From Napoleon to the 'Dark Side of the Moon': China is Creating Stuns Again," Orseth states that China is striving to become a "technological power" through new plans. The development model is also changing: from relying on large-scale infrastructure investments in the past, it is shifting towards focusing on industries such as artificial intelligence and chips that can enhance global competitiveness.
According to analysis by the consulting firm Alpine Macro, China is developing a ‘parallel technology ecosystem’ that can compete with the United States. Recently, China completed tests related to reusable launch vehicles, and the memory chip company ChangXin Storage completed a financing for its listing worth nearly a billion dollars. Additionally, the Kimi K3 model launched by Chinese artificial intelligence company Moonshot AI has also put pressure on American competitors.
Over the past year or so, the influence of Chinese artificial intelligence models in the global market has rapidly increased. By early 2025, artificial intelligence capabilities will be almost on par with those of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in the United States. However, Chinese models currently attract increasing international attention, closely approaching their American competitors.
Othés believes that one of the major advantages of Chinese AI models is their lower cost. Although American models still have a slight edge in performance, the gap is narrowing. Chinese companies have reduced the costs of AI development by using open-source software, adopting domestic chips, and optimizing computing resources.
Financial research firm Gavekal analyst Louis-Vincent Gave said that due to the restrictions imposed by the United States on high-end semiconductors, Chinese companies cannot simply invest huge amounts of capital to build the largest AI systems. Therefore, they have to find alternative solutions, including developing open-source technologies, using cheaper chips, and strengthening energy infrastructure construction.
He believes that such restrictions actually encourage Chinese companies to explore a development path that focuses more on efficiency.
In contrast, American technology companies are facing pressure to invest heavily.
Osseth mentioned that although Google's parent company, Alphabet, had quarterly performance that exceeded market expectations, its stock price fell later due to the announcement of further increases in capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence. This led markets to concern about the return on investment in AI.
He stated that the competition between China and the US in artificial intelligence is undergoing a 'role transition': in the past, American tech companies relied on substantial capital investment to drive innovation; whereas now, Chinese companies are seeking lower costs and more efficient development methods under restrictive conditions.
The article concludes that the new round of technological impact that China is experiencing may be similar to the global impact brought about by the rise of manufacturing industries in the past. As the competition in artificial intelligence intensifies, whether China can challenge the dominance of the United States through its cost advantages, technological accumulation, and industrial chain capabilities is becoming a new focus of global technology industry attention.
