Of 195 intercepts, only 29 were successfully intercepted; 24 were not intercepted at all… Recently, Ukraine’s data on the interception of Russian ballistic missiles is alarming. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense attributes this to a severe shortage of anti-aircraft systems for intercepting missiles.
According to reports, before the expected winter offensive in Russia, Ukraine is strengthening its ballistic missile defenses and seeking hundreds of interceptor missiles. However, the war with Iran has already strained U.S. supplies. Several major European supporters of Ukraine have stated that they are running out of interceptor missiles that they can safely donate. Moreover, producing new interceptor missiles cannot quench the immediate needs.
Some American think tanks warn that Russia believes it can exploit this shortage to avoid meaningful negotiations or concessions.
Facing a shortage of interceptor missiles, both Western media and the Ukrainian side have proposed a more proactive option: directly targeting the production and launch sites of Russian ballistic missiles.
"For the past few months, Russia has been launching missiles at us weekly, more than what we had received from our partners in those months," said Ukraine's former Defence Minister, Fedorov last week.
On August 7, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that in July, Russia launched 195 ballistic missiles towards Ukraine. Ukraine only intercepted 29 of these missiles due to a severe shortage of air defense systems for intercepting such missiles.
According to the Kyiv Independent, two attacks in Ukraine in August highlight this increasingly serious challenge. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that on August 5, Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles and 4 Zircon anti-ship missiles, all of which were failed to be intercepted by the Ukrainian forces. On August 1, due to a shortage of air defense interceptors, especially Patriot interceptors, Ukraine managed to shoot down only one of the 27 Russian ballistic missiles.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that intercepting ballistic missiles was particularly difficult during several major attacks against the country in July. On July 2, out of 28 missiles flying along their trajectories, Ukraine only intercepted 4. On July 6, no missile was successfully intercepted. On July 30, only one missile was intercepted.
According to Bloomberg, on August 5th, Russian attacks resulted in 17 deaths and 44 injuries. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy posted on social media that the West delayed and unwillingly supplied interceptor missiles, “directly leading to such terrible casualties and destruction.”
On August 5, 2026, local time, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Russia carried out an air raid, causing damage to a logistics center. Photo by IC photo.
Ukraine is accelerating the development of its own missile defense system, "Fereya," but this does not seem to be a solution that can immediately deal with Russian ballistic missiles.
The National Security Journal, citing Ukrainian media Euromaidan Press on August 11, reported that Zelenskyy had stated earlier in August that he hoped ‘Freyja’ would produce ‘concrete results’ between 2026 and 2027. However, ‘concrete results’ do not equate to a fully operational state of combat or large-scale production. Moreover, ‘Freyja’ cannot be compared to the ‘Patriot’ system, and it has not yet been proven capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.
One of the most important directions currently is to focus on patriotism—PAC-3 or PAC-2 missiles, said Mikhail Podialyak, advisor to the office of President of Ukraine. "The preferred solution is to purchase or obtain PAC-3 and PAC-2 anti-missile systems from existing stock,"
According to the European edition of Politico EU, the United States has transferred 'Patriot' air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine. However, Germany must now make a trade-off between meeting Ukraine's growing needs and maintaining the minimum inventory required to protect its own country and fulfill NATO commitments. Other European countries are also considering whether to retain their own interceptor missiles or hand them over to Ukraine.
German Defense Ministry senior official Jürgen Schölder said at a forum in July, "We are indeed approaching our limits. We must also ensure our own safety."
In July, Poland confirmed that several PAC-3 interceptor missiles were transferred at the request of NATO Secretary-General Rütt and senior US military commanders. Polish media Defence24 reported that the number of missiles transferred was five.
Even five of these items have caused political backlash in Poland. Opposition lawmakers believe that this action weakens the country's defense capabilities.
A European diplomat stated that Russia's neighboring countries are increasingly reluctant to hand over their "patriots" because their armed forces believe national defense air power is insufficient to meet country needs.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia said that Ukraine is struggling to purchase, trade, or acquire any available ammunition "We're truly fighting for every missile."
In the face of shortages, Ukraine has proposed a seemingly straightforward solution: to produce its own 'Patriot' interceptor missiles. However, U.S. President Trump has not agreed with this proposal yet.
According to ‘politicians’, most of the PAC-3 interceptor missiles are produced by the United States. Therefore, any related sales and production agreements require a decision from the White House. A senior Ukrainian official revealed that during Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump in July, ‘the main topic was the ‘Patriot’ interceptor missiles’.
Trump once promised at the NATO summit to authorize Ukraine to produce their own "Patriot" interceptor missiles. However, he retracted this statement on July 31, saying, "We haven't agreed yet. We are discussing the matter, but it would be difficult to provide such technology."
August 6th, Trump emphasized: “We also need missiles.”
On July 28, 2026, local time, in Washington, D.C., Trump held a closed-door meeting with visiting Zelenskyy at the White House. IC photo
According to reports cited by The New York Times, current military actions against Iran have significantly depleted the U.S. Department of Defense’s weapons stockpile, resulting in a shortage of over 1,700 Patriot air defense missiles in the Pentagon.
According to reports, the Trump administration is working with military contractors to accelerate and expand production. However, even considering these efforts, it will take the United States more than two years to replenish the 1,500 or more ‘Patriot’ missiles that have been depleted in the current Middle East conflict.
The ‘politician’ pointed out that Trump is focused on rebuilding America’s reserves.
Defence24 cited The Atlantic as reporting that sources in the U.S. Congress said American manufacturers are worried that Ukrainians will find ways to improve the 'Patriot' interceptor missile, and then produce it in large quantities at a faster speed and with lower costs, something that current American production lines cannot accomplish.
Russian Foreign Affairs Academy's Institute of Contemporary International Issues director of global research and international relations, Vadim Kozylin, believes that the reason why the United States is unwilling to transfer the production rights of the 'Patriot' air defense system and other technologies to Ukraine is that they do not want Ukraine to become a competitor. 'Ukraine will compete for market share, and more importantly, it will trade with objects that are beyond Western control, creating crises around the world.'
Russian military expert Vasily Dandegin said to The News Agency on August 11 that the reason why Ukraine's Western allies do not issue production licenses is because they “are afraid of technology being leaked to Russia”.
According to a report by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on August 10, Deputy Director of the General Intelligence Department of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Skibitski, stated that since April 2026, Russia has been adjusting the priorities of ballistic missile and cruise missile production, aiming to exploit the shortage of interceptor missiles available to Ukrainian forces.
He stated that the Russian military is increasingly using ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian defense industrial facilities, in order to prevent Ukraine from producing ballistic missiles locally. From April to July 2026, Russia's monthly launch of ballistic missiles against Ukraine increased to more than three times the previous level.
He pointed out that the missiles used by the Russian army for strikes were not stockpiled ammunition, but newly produced missiles.
ISW believes that this indicates that the Russian military is trying to increase its missile production capacity, carrying out larger-scale and more frequent ballistic missile strikes without using existing stocks. If the launch devices and other necessary capabilities are effective, this approach allows the Russian military to retain stocks for conducting individual ultra-large-scale strikes.
Former military technical advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Sergei Beskrestnov, warned that Russian forces will intensify attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities during the upcoming winter.
ISW says Russia will focus production on ballistic missiles, which could help Russia destroy Ukraine's military spirit by exploiting the upcoming winter. This likely reflects President Putin's view: to take advantage of a shortage in Patriot missile supplies and force Ukraine to accept Russian demands. The significant reduction in "Patriot" missile supply would push the conflict into 2027.
Bloomberg believes that the shortage of interception missiles in Ukraine means that the damaged power and heating capabilities in Ukraine can be restored more quickly this winter, but the Ukrainian side will not have enough time to repair them. This will lead to power outages, severe cold, and potentially trigger a new wave of large-scale migration.
Facing a shortage of interceptor missiles in Ukraine, Germany and Nordic countries have called on other European countries to examine what military equipment and financial support they can provide.
Currently, the Ukrainian side continues to engage in such negotiations with its allies. A senior official familiar with the negotiations said, “Everything depends on the United States. The lack of willingness of the US to provide assistance has affected all other countries.”
The Financial Times believes that the plan of having Ukraine produce 'Patriot' missiles would increase the global production capacity of these missiles. However, it agrees that transferring technology and establishing a qualified supply chain may take several years for Ukraine, thus failing to address the immediate crisis. Nevertheless, if allies know that they can receive additional supplies in the future, this plan could incentivize them to provide ammunition from their stockpiles to Ukraine.
At the same time, France and Italy should deliver the new generation of ground-based medium-range surface-to-air missile system, SAMP/T NG, as soon as possible.
The media also pointed out that Ukraine and its allies should support defense startups to produce interceptors that can be mass-produced at lower costs. Additionally, Ukraine’s allies should provide Ukraine with methods and target intelligence to destroy Russian ballistic missile production and launch sites. The Ukrainian military must target the shooters themselves, not just the arrows they fire.
Bloomberg also believes that the United States and its European allies must come up with innovative ideas to find new ways to protect Ukraine's airspace. They should acquire enough Patriot missiles to help Ukraine get through this difficult time, while also providing long-range strike capabilities to weaken Russia's ballistic missile production.
Ukraine also plans to take more proactive actions to counter Russian missile launch facilities. Fedorov said, "The Russians must understand that within a few minutes after the missile is launched, the entire launch team will be killed by our ballistic missiles."
Currently, Ukraine has signed agreements to obtain the PAC-2 interceptor missiles being produced in Germany. However, it is unlikely that these missiles will be delivered before next year. Additionally, the United States is working with Ukraine on a plan to “renovate and upgrade” the S-300 missile system. Retired U.S. Army Colonel Robert Hamilton revealed that the short-term goal of this plan is to achieve initial operational capability by the end of 2026. The expected annual production capacity is between 100 and 300 missiles. The purpose of this plan is to restore the continuous use of existing S-300 launch devices and radar systems in the hands of Ukrainian forces, thereby reducing the combat exposure to the Patriot missiles.
