On August 17 local time, the 60-day negotiation period set forth in the memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran in June expired. Just as the negotiations to end the war between the two sides reached a deadlock, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran would shift from a defensive posture to a “full-scale offensive” military strategy, and is prepared to take military action against the US maritime blockade if diplomatic efforts fail.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States does not seek to extend the temporary agreement reached in June. In an interview with Fox News, he also threatened that if Oman obstructed U.S. actions, “we will blow them up.”
On the 17th local time, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is currently adjusting its military policy.
"Iranian relevant agencies must be prepared for the exacerbation of the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding regions." This official stated that Iran will make a decision and take action.
He also stated that if diplomatic efforts fail, Tehran will launch a “timely and precise” military operation in order to break the maritime blockade imposed by the United States on Iran.
This official stated that the United States must implement all provisions of the memorandum of understanding agreed upon by Iran within a "short few weeks" timeframe set by Iran, otherwise there would be no basis for further negotiations with the United States. The mediation party will inform the United States and other regional countries of the Iranian-proposed deadline.
He also stated that Iran is shifting from a defensive policy to an offensive policy, as Iran increasingly does not believe in achieving a permanent ceasefire with the United States through diplomatic means.
Facts have proven that the United States is not taking the ceasefire seriously and will not make any commitments. Therefore, pressuring the enemy or hoping for a mediated peace agreement to bring about permanent ceasefires is unrealistic.
Facing journalist inquiries about whether the United States is prepared to extend the June temporary agreement, Trump directly answered "no."
According to The New York Times, as this precarious cease-fire arrangement officially expired, Trump showed obvious dissatisfaction with the prolonged lack of an end to the US-Iran war.
In an interview with Fox News, Trump pointed the finger at his American ally Oman. Oman has been acting as a mediator between the United States and Iran for many years, and insists that it remains a neutral mediator.
"If Aman interferes, we'll blow them to bits." Trump said.
Iran is currently negotiating separately with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran previously stated that the two countries are close to reaching an agreement, but progress has been slow. Reuters says that this arrangement is seen as a key component in resolving the broader issue between the United States and Iran.
This is not the first time Trump has threatened Oman this year. Previously, after it was revealed that Oman had discussed the issue of tolls at the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, Trump also publicly warned Oman that the United States might take military action against it if Oman did not comply with U.S. demands.
《New York Times》 notes that when the US launched an attack on Iran in late February, US government officials had promised the war would end within 4 to 6 weeks. However, the conflict has now lasted for over six months.
On the battlefield, the United States launched attacks on thousands of targets within Iran, severely damaging Iran's military capabilities. However, Trump has not made similar progress in terms of political objectives related to the war.
Atlantic Council's 'Iran Strategy Project' member Nate Swanson believes that Trump's threat to Oman reflects his sense of frustration with the current situation.
He was simply letting off steam in a subconscious way, and this time, Aman became his target. Swanston said.
Justin Logan, Director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, believes that the expiration of the memorandum is "largely symbolic," but the symbolic significance is still important. He pointed out that one of the main functions of this agreement is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the major obstacles in U.S-Iran negotiations.
As the ceasefire expires, the Trump administration is preparing to impose stricter sanctions on Iran this week, but the specific measures have not yet been announced.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Heggs earlier stated that the United States could maintain a naval blockade of the Hormuz Strait indefinitely.
On August 17th, local time, Trump said in an interview with reporters in the Oval Office of the White House that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons remains the United States' top goal in this war. “We have only one reason for that: Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.”
When talking about the Hormuz Strait, Trump once again stated that the United States can declare it as part of its territory. "We control it through blockade measures; I like the idea of declaring it as part of the United States' territory."
Meanwhile, the energy risks posed by war continue to worsen.
According to Reuters, since the war began at the end of February, Brent crude oil futures have risen to $126 per barrel, which is approximately 75% higher than the pre-war level. On August 17, the price of Brent crude oil rose to about $91 per barrel.
Trump warned the American public last week to prepare for the persistent high oil prices caused by the war. And now, the war is starting to affect Trump's support rate within the United States.
A recent poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos on August 17 shows that Trump's support has dropped to 33%, the lowest level of his term in office. 64% of respondents expressed disapproval of his performance. This figure represents a further decline from 35% earlier this month, also matching Trump's lowest record during his first term in December 2017.
Polls show that 80% of respondents believe the United States’ involvement in the war with Iran will continue for a long time, while only 16% believe that the conflict may end within a few weeks. Only 20% of respondents consider this war “worthwhile”, and among Republican voters, only half share this view.
