For a long time, the focus of the global population issue has been centered around the risk of a “population explosion”. India is considered to be a major contributor to global population growth. However, this country with a population of 1.45 billion has recently become the world’s most populous nation. It has quietly entered a phase of low fertility rates, raising a new alarm for the entire world.
The Economist reported on the 4th that over the past few decades, India has been instilling the idea that 'too many children are born'. Now, new textbooks in India convey a completely different message. Instead of warning about the dangers of having too many children, they remind people to be aware of the risks associated with low birth rates.
The reason is that India is facing a sharp decline in fertility rates. Data shows that India's total fertility rate has currently dropped to 1.9, and it continues to decline, below the replacement level of 2.1 in demography.
The total fertility rate refers to the number of children that an average woman in the childbearing age (15 to 49 years old) has per country or region. A total fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be at the level of generational replacement, and a rate below 2.1 indicates that the overall population size will decline.
Several states in India now have birth rates comparable to those of wealthy European countries with low birth rates. The Tamil Nadu state in southern India and the West Bengal state in eastern India both have a total fertility rate of 1.3, which is on par with Finland. The Maharashtra state in western India has a total fertility rate of 1.4, similar to that of Norway.
The current total population of 1.45 billion in India is still in a stage of slight growth, and the impact of a decrease in the number of newborns has not yet been reflected in the overall population. However, structural decline has already begun. The number of newborns in India has dropped by a fifth compared to the peak in 2001, and the consequences of low birth rates are already evident in certain regions. Tamil Nadu closed 1,200 schools last year due to a shortage of qualified teachers, and the proportion of single-child households continues to rise within schools.
A Hindu woman in India is giving her child water on a hot summer day.
Currently, India has introduced policies such as cash subsidies to encourage fertility, attempting to reverse the declining trend in birth rates.
According to the Indian 'Economic Times', the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh has previously introduced a reward policy for families with three children, offering a reward of 30,000 rupees (100 rupees approximately equal to 7.1 yuan, or about 2130 RMB); families with four children receive a reward of approximately 40,000 rupees, equivalent to about 2840 RMB. This is another fertility support policy introduced by the state, following the 25,000 rupee childbirth subsidy for families with two children.
According to reports by the Assam State News Television earlier, Assam will implement a differential fertility relaxation policy on December 5, 2025. This policy allows certain ethnic groups, such as those belonging to specified tribes and castes, to have three children. These groups will retain their legal rights to apply for public positions and participate in elections.
In addition, some states in India have implemented various policies to encourage childbirth. For example, the maternity leave for female government employees has been extended from 6 months to one year, and the paternity leave for men has been increased from 15 days to 30 days. Non-government employees receiving a second child are also provided with financial support.
Reports indicate that the demographic shift in India shows that low fertility and population decline are no longer exclusive to wealthy countries. Currently, more than two-thirds of countries worldwide have seen their fertility rates fall below the replacement level. Middle-income countries such as Brazil, Iran, Thailand, and Turkey have long maintained low fertility rates, and low-income countries are also steadily joining this trend: Sri Lanka has a total fertility rate of only 1.3, Tunisia is at 1.6, Morocco has already fallen below the replacement level, and Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, may also be approaching the replacement level.
The current situation in India also reveals the reasons behind the global decline in fertility rates. One of the factors is the continuous decrease in child mortality rates, as people no longer need to have multiple children in order to avoid the risk of infant deaths.
But demographers have previously stated that the key determinant is the overall improvement in women’s educational levels. Education gives women the ability to think independently and have more say in life decisions.
In the 1990s, the enrollment rates of girls in many regions of India and Africa increased significantly, accompanied by a noticeable decline in the fertility rate. Only in a few areas where many girls still cannot receive formal education, such as Niger, northern Nigeria, or Chad, did the fertility rate remain almost unchanged.
Education also lowers the fertility rate from another perspective: the higher the expectations of parents, the more they invest in a single child. If the quality of public education is poor, this trend is further exacerbated. Data shows that last year, 39% of children in India attended private schools, a significant increase from the 32% in 2015. Parents are caught up in an educational competition, gradually shifting towards having fewer children and focusing on quality education for their offspring.
The innovation in the way information is disseminated has further accelerated the iteration of fertility concepts. A study shows that after the popularization of cable TV in rural India at the beginning of the 21st century, local fertility rates began to decline. Films and TV shows depict the lifestyle of middle-class families who have fewer children and focus on the well-being of their offspring, which may have subtly changed the traditional fertility concepts of local people. Some people joke that people just get addicted to watching TV and have no time to have children. The influence of smartphones is even greater, as they can distract people more effectively. This has further introduced the lifestyle of wealthy groups into less developed areas, impacting their willingness to have children.
Regardless of the root cause, the decline in global fertility rates has already had profound impacts. It is estimated that India's population will reach a peak of 1.6 billion in about 20 years, and by the end of this century, it will significantly drop to less than 1 billion. Asia as a whole may reach its population peak in the 2040s. The time when the global population peak arrives may be earlier than most people expect, and it might even occur in the 2050s, because Africa's population will not be as large as previously predicted.
According to reports, if most countries enter a period of low fertility, the approach of relying on immigrants to fill the labor gap will become increasingly difficult.
A low fertility rate does not necessarily inhibit growth, but it complicates policy-making. This is especially true for countries like India, which must allocate their limited public resources in advance to areas such as pensions and elderly care. This also means that it is urgent to increase fiscal revenue capacity, for example by attracting more people, especially women, into the formal labor market.
Factors such as higher levels of education for girls, lower child mortality rates, and individual autonomy have undoubtedly led to a lower fertility rate. However, as India and other countries rapidly complete their population transitions, this process will not be completely painless.
