According to a report by Reuters on October 2, Saudi Arabia is preparing to launch a new round of military operations against the Houthi forces in Yemen. One of the targets is to reclaim the Red Sea Strait. Based on the current discussion regarding the scale of the operation, more than 100,000 Yemeni ground troops may be mobilized.
According to six Gulf countries and Yemen officials familiar with the preparations, as well as Western diplomats, the operation is expected to begin in the coming weeks. Ground combat operations will be primarily carried out by Yemeni armed forces supported by Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia providing air support.
Saudi Arabia is currently considering at least two options.
One strategy limits operations to the area around the Maldives Strait, advancing along the Yemen Red Sea coast, thereby re-taking control of this important international waterway. The other strategy is much larger in scale; in addition to coastal areas, offensive operations will also be launched simultaneously in places like Beda, Marbou, Taiz, and Jawf.
Saudi-backed Yemen government forces armed personnel details
Several officials said that the exact scale of mobilization will depend on which plan is ultimately adopted, and the number of Yemeni ground troops involved could exceed 100,000. The Saudi government, the Yemeni government, Houthi rebels, and the U.S. military have not responded to the plan disclosed by Reuters yet.
The Cape of Good Hope connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, making it an important shipping route from the Mediterranean to Asia. Since the beginning of this year, due to the severe impact on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran conflict, the importance of the Cape of Good Hope has further increased.
In September this year, the Houthi armed forces advanced rapidly along the Red Sea coast of Yemen and took control of the Gulf of Aden. According to Western diplomats and an official from a Gulf country cited by Reuters, Riyadh believes that it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to initiate a new round of peace negotiations with the Houthi movement while the Houthi group continues to control the Gulf of Aden.
As for when military actions will begin, the sources give different estimates. Some predict that it could start as soon as within a week, while others believe the operation might be delayed until after the U.S. mid-term elections in November. No specific date has been determined yet.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney believes that if Saudi Arabia takes action, the scale of the intervention may be much smaller than the military intervention led by Saudi Arabia in 2015.
Latteni said that even if Saudi Arabia wishes to completely defeat Houthi, it first needs to restore the situation before Houthi took control of the regions along the Red Sea. He expects that more realistic actions may focus on reclaiming coastal areas and restoring normal maritime traffic.
The United States has been involved in Saudi Arabia's current military operations in Yemen.
A Western diplomat revealed that Washington is providing Saudi Arabia with military advisors and intelligence support, including information on targets for Saudi air operations. However, the United States currently has no plans to directly participate in ground combat operations.
Reuters previously reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had sought military support from the United States, including direct air strikes, but this request was rejected by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Saudi Arabia has also received a batch of military equipment from Turkey and Pakistan.
In August this year, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement. According to reports by Reuters and officials from Pakistan and the region, Pakistan sent four transport aircraft to the southern Yemeni city of Aden in September, carrying air defense systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone equipment. Aden is currently the location of the Yemeni government supported by Saudi Arabia.
Pakistani military advisors have been working alongside Saudi personnel to assist Yemeni forces locally. The Saudi drones purchased from Turkey have also been deployed over Yemen.
According to a Pakistani official, Pakistan currently has approximately 30,000 to 40,000 military personnel deployed in Saudi Arabia, responsible for border defense, as well as the interception of drones and missiles. These personnel began arriving in batches since last year, and their deployment has increased recently due to the escalating situation.
However, the official emphasized that Pakistan has not decided to send ground troops to Yemen to participate directly in the conflict. Neither the Pakistani nor the Turkish defense departments responded to Reuters's requests for comments regarding any military assistance.
France has previously announced that it will deploy defense systems and personnel in Saudi Arabia to protect the port of Yanbu along the Red Sea.
According to Reuters, one of the important considerations for Saudi Arabia is how to protect its oil facilities, ports, and other infrastructure from attacks by Houthi drones and missiles if military actions are expanded in Yemen. Regional officials said that Riyadh has sought support for air defense and anti-drone systems from several allies.
The forces that can actually be deployed on the ground in Saudi Arabia come from various factions within Yemen.
These armed forces were mostly funded, equipped, and trained by Saudi Arabia and the UAE during the previous Yemen war. Last winter, some southern armed forces supported by the UAE attempted to seize eastern Yemen and promote separatism. They then clashed with Saudi-backed forces and were defeated. There is still no unified force within the anti-Houthi camp in Yemen.
Yemen analyst Muhammad Bashar told Reuters that many anti-Houthi forces currently lack sufficient organization and preparation, and may not be able to launch sustained large-scale attacks immediately. Houthi forces are exerting pressure on them across multiple fronts.
Political analyst Ali Shehbi, who is close to the Saudi government's stance, said that for now, the priority is to stabilize the ground positions, "but they will definitely move towards an offensive." As for how far the operation will progress, it will depend on the actual performance of the Yemeni ground forces.
Saudi Arabia began leading coalition forces in the Yemen conflict starting in 2015, supporting the Yemeni government that had been expelled from the capital Sanaa by the Houthi rebels. In 2022, peace was reached between all parties involved in the conflict under the mediation of the United Nations. Over the following years, large-scale fighting decreased significantly.
This year, as the conflict between the United States and Iran intensified, the battlefield in Yemen has seen renewed tension. The Houla militant group has successively used missiles and drones to attack Saudi shipping and energy facilities, and achieved significant progress along the Red Sea in September.
On September 16, Reuters reported that the Houthi forces had previously secretly gathered about 100,000 people and quickly broke through the Yemeni armed forces supported by Saudi Arabia, capturing large areas of land and some islands near the Red Sea. Two weeks later, plans for a new round of military operations by Saudi Arabia began to emerge.
