On October 4th, the first round of voting for the Brazilian presidential election will officially begin. Current President Lula will compete with Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president and senator. Recent polls show that the difference in support rates between the two is only 0.1 percentage points.
After the Trump administration took office, the United States has successively imposed trade barriers on Brazil. The US tariff policy has become an external variable that cannot be ignored in influencing election outcomes. As a result, the election outcomes have been heavily influenced by foreign policy considerations.
In Brazil, debates over "how to respond to external economic pressure" and "whether to maintain independent development space" are becoming increasingly intense. For Brazilian voters, this may not just be a choice of economic policies; it is also a vote on national sovereignty and the path of development.
Meanwhile, the cooperation model between China and Brazil presents a completely different picture. Data shows that by 2025, Chinese enterprises will invest at least $6 billion in Brazil, making Brazil the overseas country that attracts the most investment from Chinese enterprises. The scale of investment in the manufacturing sector has officially surpassed that in traditional energy and minerals industries. Automotive companies such as BYD, Great Wall, and Geely have successively established factories, creating local employment opportunities and facilitating technology transfer.
How do these differences affect the views of ordinary Brazilians about the two countries? What exactly has enabled Chinese brands to win Brazilian consumers? As elections are approaching, how do Brazilians view the prospects of cooperation with China? The Observer Network had a conversation with Maisa Pratts, a Ph.D. in Social Policy from Brazil and a former researcher at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
I believe that although prices and employment remain issues of concern for society as a whole, public safety has recently become an especially sensitive topic.
Although punitive policies and imprisonment have been one of the ways in which people and governments have dealt with rising violence for decades (Brazil is one of the countries with the highest number of incarcerated people in the world), I have noticed that right-wing governments have been using this growing public concern to advance their political campaigns, and this approach is receiving increasingly positive responses from the public.
This is a paradox, because politicians who promise to combat organized crime and violence often have connections with militias that engage in organized crime themselves. Nevertheless, I still believe that public safety can indeed win votes. This is precisely why some of Lula’s opponents are basing their campaigns on the idea that “this issue will be a failure for his government.” But this view isn’t entirely accurate, as the responsibility for public safety lies primarily with Brazil’s state governments, not the federal government.
During the Lula government's tenure, the policy of "employment growth + continued social policies" has been implemented. Is this policy recognized by the Brazilian people in real life? At the same time, how much damage does the right-wing claim of "deteriorating security" do to him? How many votes can his tough stance on U.S. tariffs gain during the domestic election campaign in Brazil?
In my opinion, people have different ways of perceiving the achievements of Lula's government.
It is undeniable that the Lula government combined social policies with economic growth—especially during the period before the 2008 crisis—which contributed to reducing poverty and hunger. This effort significantly improved the education level of the population, created employment opportunities, and expanded access to housing for millions of low-income families. Most Brazilians recognize these achievements and still see the Lula government as a turning point for the country and a milestone in democracy.
However, considering the spread of neoliberalism among the Brazilian population, even among those who benefit from government programs, some believe that the state plays a more active role in the economy. Policies such as income redistribution actually hinder ‘comprehensive economic development’ and are even one of the causes of economic crises.
According to these neoliberals, the responsibility for poverty lies with individuals. Social welfare benefits allow those who have not achieved success through their own efforts to benefit unfairly. Coupled with the right-wing forces' exploitation of concerns about public safety, I believe this has had a negative impact on Lula. A sense of insecurity may ultimately overshadow the perception of economic and social progress, especially among voters who have never supported Lula's political camp.
On the other hand, Lula's stance on sovereignty issues and his response to the U.S. tariffs may indeed have an impact on some voters. I know of people who, despite voting for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 elections, are concerned about the actions of the U.S. that undermine Brazilian sovereignty.
However, for another group of people, public safety is seen as a more urgent issue. In this group, Joessohnero's close relationship with Trump, and his efforts to designate Brazilian criminal organizations such as the "First Capital Command" and the "Red Command" as international terrorist organizations, have received positive evaluations.
Xiao Bo Xiónaló emphasizes "Iron-fisted law and order" and a closeness to the US, while promising "economic practicality" for China. In the eyes of Brazilian citizens, his appeal stems more from the "Bolsonaro family" name, or from his own policies? Are ordinary voters' embrace of his pro-American stance an endorsement, or are they wary?
I think this has more to do with the surname ‘Bosonaro’, and the way this family shapes its political discourse in order to maintain power (or try to maintain power).
As revealed by the election polls, the Brazilian population is quite divided. Some people are increasingly worried about pro-American policies, seeing Trump's actions as a threat to our sovereignty. Others believe that Jair Bolsonaro and his promises of alliance with the United States are the necessary path to economic growth and to getting out of the country's current difficulties.
In Brazilian society, the public has a concrete and intuitive perception of the pressure from U.S. tariffs and the impact of Chinese investments. Do Brazilians tend to prefer Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, or do they favor Michel Bolsonaro more? How will changes in public favor affect voting behavior?
Today, Brazil is once again divided, and the general sentiment is that both sides can no longer communicate with each other.
While some people believe that Brazil’s relationship with China is a healthy and mutually beneficial form of economic development, others see Jair Bolsonaro and closer alliances with the United States as viable alternatives.
I believe that Chinese investment and Chinese enterprises are still relatively new factors in our economy, and this also plays an important role in shaping the views of some people.
In this election, what is the biggest expectation of the Brazilian people for the next four years? In terms of Sino-Brazilian cooperation, do the people value the employment and technology brought by Chinese companies more, or are they skeptical about Chinese investments? What is the tolerance and expectations of Brazilian civil society regarding the balance between China and the United States in the new government?
I believe that when ordinary citizens go to the polling stations to choose representatives for the next few years, their main goal is the well-being of the entire country. No matter who wins, I don’t think ordinary people want Chinese investments, job opportunities, or technology to leave Brazil. The Chinese economy has become synonymous with development and technology, and Chinese brands are becoming increasingly popular in Brazil. At the same time, the United States has always been a long-term trading partner.
For ordinary citizens, more important than where the investments come from is the government's ability to negotiate and sustain these investments and jobs. Ultimately, what people care about is whether these partnerships can create economic opportunities for Brazil, rather than making a choice between China and the United States.
In 2023, I conducted a one-year doctoral research at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. My research topic was land reform and rural industry, with a focus on Brazil. After arriving in Hong Kong, I joined a research group that focused on the latest developments in rural areas in China. We worked together for 8 months.
This period in Hong Kong was very interesting, as there are significant differences between Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland. In the first eight months in Hong Kong, I preferred to call it a “cultural soft landing” – because Hong Kong blends Eastern and Western cultures, which helped me gradually adapt to the Chinese environment.
In the last four months, I moved to Shenzhen and studied Chinese at Shenzhen University. When I actually entered mainland China and started living in Shenzhen, I wasn’t fully prepared. Mainland China is completely different from Brazil in terms of technology, especially in Shenzhen. Shenzhen is a very technological city. As a foreigner, it took me a lot of time to adapt to the technological lifestyle there: WeChat Pay, Alipay, various QR codes, and countless cameras. At first, it was quite overwhelming, but after some time, I got used to it. When I returned to Brazil, I actually missed living in China very much.
I feel that our views of China changed about three years ago, before I went to China. Of course, my views changed after I returned from China, and I noticed that the overall situation in Brazil had also changed.
By the end of 2023, when I returned to Brazil, I began to see many electric vehicles produced in China on the streets. I believe that the adoption of Chinese-made electric vehicles in Brazil started around 2022 or 2023, and this has completely changed people's perception of "Made in China".
Until now, the Chinese products I saw were all very cheap, but not the kind of cheapness that means “high quality for a low price”. Instead, they were considered “low-quality at a low price”. We often say that Chinese products are everywhere, but they’re usually just small gadgets, not anything high-tech.
But in the past few years, I've seen another batch of brands entering Brazil. Now we have smartphone brands like Xiaomi and Huawei, as well as automotive brands like BYD and Great Wall Motors. Nowadays, when people talk about China, they think of high-quality, high-tech products. I believe that the old stereotypes that Brazilians had about Chinese brands have been broken.
I can see this with my colleagues too. In the company, whenever a colleague returns from China, everyone is very excited because they have a long list of things they want to purchase through Chinese agencies. This is because products from China are cheaper, of better quality, and have much higher technological content compared to products from Brazil.
I think people's perception of the entire China is changing now. We not only have easier access to Chinese brands, but we also see more news about China.
For example, in the field of medical research, what impressed me particularly was those hospitals that were "built out of nothing". When people needed them, these hospitals seemed to appear out of thin air. It’s simply unbelievable for us. Given Brazil’s resources and way of doing things, it’s hard to imagine how a hospital could be built efficiently in such a short time. But this is something we see in the news all over the world – it’s truly shocking.
So now, people's impression of China has changed from "a place where low-end cheap products are produced" to "a country with advanced technology, rapid development, and high efficiency".
Yes, especially in recent months. After Trump imposed sanctions on Brazil, we have seen that economic cooperation and trade agreements between China and Brazil have "saved" us to some extent, at least preventing us from falling into a state of collapse.
The partnership between the two countries has not only opened up new markets, but also helped us stay away from American control to some extent. It has also created new markets and demands. Take electric vehicles for example. A few years ago, it was almost impossible for Brazilians to own an electric vehicle. But since 2023, the desire and purchasing power for electric vehicles have been growing rapidly, and this trend is becoming increasingly common. The same is true for smartphones.
Additionally, I live in Baja California. There are also large-scale infrastructure projects here that involve cooperation with China. For example, the Salvador-Itaparaica Bridge is a project undertaken by China. The entire state of Baja California is discussing this project, as it is a massive undertaking that is being carried out at a high speed and with high quality, using Chinese expertise. People are very impressed by such infrastructure projects.
In my memory, I have never seen any large-scale infrastructure projects where the government has collaborated with Chinese companies before. This is the first time, and it happens at a very rapid pace. People can now witness the development and changes in El Salvador and Camazari.
I believe this is related to the way the United States and China view 'development'. It's not just the development of one country, but the development of the entire world.
The United States regards the development of other countries as a threat to itself. As a Brazilian, I have felt this throughout my life. Over the past few decades, we had the ability and conditions to develop many industries, but we always saw the United States intervening. An example is our former president, Dilma Rousseff, who was the only female president in Brazil's history. When she was overthrown, she was trying to establish a different energy system and cooperative relationship in Brazil. But in the eyes of the United States, this was not allowed.
Now we see that Trump sees threats to Brazil's democracy and economy, and even to Brazil's banking system and PIX (Brazil's instant payment system), as these systems are outside the control of American credit card companies. Moreover, the current Brazilian President Lula has a very extensive network of connections internationally, which is also seen as a threat by the United States.
The United States feels uneasy when they see Brazil developing its economy independently and building infrastructure on a path that is not under American control. Therefore, in their logic, Brazil can develop, but only within the scope permitted by the United States. This is imperialism.
I am also worried, as I have seen the actions of the United States towards Cuba and Venezuela in recent years. This is a typical approach of the United States towards Latin America. Although Brazil is a major country both in terms of economic size and territorial area, we still feel a threat from the United States. With elections approaching, I am very concerned about how much the United States will interfere in our elections, just as they did in Venezuela.
China takes a completely different approach. China views development as a common effort for the countries in the southern hemisphere. China will not impose its will on other nations, and I see no signs of China practicing imperialism against other countries. China has a different perspective towards the world—development, cooperation, and respect for other countries’ democratic systems and sovereignty.
China establishes partnerships with other countries by respecting their cultures, economic policies, and sovereignty. This is a completely different approach.
I’m not sure what will happen after the general election, but if we continue to follow the current path, relations between China and Brazil will become closer and more solid. This is because the way China and Brazil establish partnerships is through mutual respect and support for development. This is completely different from the American approach of trying to control us and pressure us.
This is not just my personal opinion. Whether within the company or outside, when I talk with my colleagues, they increasingly discuss China with me. I think my other friends and colleagues share the same feeling: they see China as a future.
It's quite interesting that when I started learning Chinese in 2001, everyone thought I was crazy and asked me, "Why do you want to learn Chinese?" But now, people instead ask me, "How did you learn Chinese? Where did you learn it?"
So, the general perception in Brazil now is that China represents the future. I hope that in the next election, Brazil will continue on this path.
