Before we could even recover from the rapid advancement of AI technology, we suddenly realized that the AI era did not end capitalism, but instead pushed it into an unprecedented paradox: the more productive forces were liberated, the more ineffective distribution became; the more the system became intelligent, the weaker human agency became. This is not a failure of technology, but rather the self-dissolution of capital logic at its own limits. And after the dusk, perhaps there will be another possible dawn.
So, can we seriously ask a question—is the world today in an era of transition from capitalism to socialism or communism, or at least a stage of this transition? When humanity stands once again at the crossroads of fate, should we choose to be dragged into the abyss by capitalism, or should we choose to move towards socialism?
Recently, at the "Contemporary Capitalist Crisis and World Future Academic Symposium" held by Cultural Review, Zhu Andong, Dean of the School of Marxism at Tsinghua University, elaborated on the above issues in his speech.
The world is currently in a profound change that has not been seen in a century. Chaos is intertwined: the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the Palestine-Egypt conflict remains unresolved, and the United States has forcibly taken away Venezuelan President Maduro. The United States and Israel have begun military actions against Iran. You should have heard of the relevant war data. Although statistics from different agencies vary, they are all very distressing. According to last year's data, more than 50 countries around the world are in war, with at least 20,000 people dying from wars each month.
After Trump's second inauguration as president, he even made territorial claims against Greenland and Canada. This has led some observers to believe that not only is the Yalta system in decline, but the Westphalia system is also on the verge of collapse.
Additionally, the policies implemented by him after his first term in office actively broke down the various rules that were established under American leadership and were generally beneficial to the United States. This inevitably reminds one of the phrase, "All ranks and fixed structures have vanished, and all things that are considered sacred have been profaned." This was the judgment made by Marx and Engels when describing the transition from feudal society to capitalist society in "The Communist Manifesto." The ranks and fixed structures that supported the operation of feudal society either disappeared or were profaned.
And today, we can't help but ask: are those "hierarchical", "fixed", and "sacred" aspects that underpin the functioning of capitalist society also in decline? Can we pose this question: are we at a stage where capitalism is transitioning towards socialism or communism, or which stage of this transition are we currently in?
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that the world has entered a new period of turmoil and change. In my understanding, the world is currently in a period of great changes and chaos, with turmoil intertwined with change. Perhaps three more words could be added—a period of great crisis.
World capitalism is facing a systematic and institutional crisis. This is no longer a cyclical crisis; it has trends and structural characteristics. It involves not only economic and financial aspects, but also social, political, and even cultural crises.
Marx in *Capital* wrote: “The motive of capitalist production is to make profit. The production process is just a necessary intermediary step for making profits, and must be performed regardless; it's the unfortunate business that has to happen (so as to make money). (Therefore, all capitalist production systems are periodically afflicted with a kind of psychosis, striving to bypass the production process altogether in order to gain profit.)” In our terms today, this is "going from reality to illusion". The phrase within parentheses will cause people to focus more on its periodicity; I've recently been pondering: could this also reflect a trend or structural change in capitalist thought?
Regarding the most essential characteristic of contemporary capitalism, I believe it can be summarized as the rule of “financial monopoly capital”. This rule has been established in the United States at least, and has spread to many countries. The influence of those large investment banks diminished after the 2008 financial crisis, but now the most influential ones are asset management companies, with the three largest being the Vanguard Group, Blackrock, and Dow Jones Industrial Companies. Both Vanguard and Blackrock manage assets worth over $10 trillion each, and they are the major shareholders of the vast majority of companies included in the S&P 500 index, essentially having complete control. Among the top five shareholders of the S&P 500, it is rare to see individual shareholders; Bezos and Musk are just a few exceptions, with most being financial capital institutions.
In 2024, the top ten asset management companies worldwide are all American companies. The companies ranked 1st to 6th are also American companies, and the one ranked 8th is also an American company.
When financial capital controls these largest and most important enterprises, will it affect their behavior? Some say that such investments are essentially passive investments, where companies' shares are held through the purchase of funds or ETFs. But think about this: if you become Microsoft's largest shareholder, would you not send someone to manage the company? That's hardly something that can be imagined. In fact, they will definitely get involved in management and thus change the behavior of the enterprises.
This results in companies prioritizing stock repurchases and shareholder dividends over investment or research and development after they have made profits. Both of these actions are influenced by the ideology of “stakeholder interests above all else” – everything in a company is meant for short-term returns for shareholders. This leads manufacturing-oriented companies to have increasingly short-term business goals, ignoring long-term development. Private financial capital often seeks to “make quick money” and “make big money”.
This will lead to a series of consequences. Boeing is a typical example. As one of the two dominant companies in the global production of commercial aircraft, it doesn’t need to worry about orders or profits as long as there are no major problems. But how did such a company end up producing inferior products like the Boeing 737 MAX? This is probably closely related to the fact that Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas, and the former McDonnell Douglas executives became part of Boeing’s management. These people emphasized the financialization of operations, which led to McDonnell Douglas’ decline, and as a result, it was acquired by Boeing. However, after they took over at Boeing, they continued to follow the same practices and ideas, unable to tolerate the culture of engineers from Boeing’s headquarters. As a result, Boeing’s headquarters was moved to Chicago. After the 737 MAX accident, Boeing’s headquarters was moved again to Arlington, Virginia. The reason is simple—Arlington is close to the Pentagon, and now a significant portion of Boeing’s contracts depend on orders from the U.S. Department of Defense.
Since the 1980s, especially after entering the 21st century, there has been a clear trend of deindustrialization in major capitalist countries. Looking at the value added of manufacturing in several major industrial nations, traditional industrial countries such as the United States are experiencing a decline, with their share of the world market continuously decreasing. In 2023, China accounted for 31% of the global total, while the United States only accounted for 15%, Japan only 6%, and Germany 5%.
Although the United States has been advocating the return of manufacturing since the Obama administration, the results have been minimal. Since the beginning of the 21st century, especially after 2008, not only has the output of the U.S. industrial and manufacturing sectors not returned to its peak in 2007, but there has also been little increase in production capacity. I even suspect that there may be a sharp decline in production at some point in the future. Now, the United States is even unable to repair its aircraft carriers, and this is due to a series of problems.
Economic stagnation has persisted for a long time, accompanied by high financial bubbles. The debt problem is becoming increasingly severe. Currently, the average proportion of national debt to GDP in capitalist countries has reached 120%. This creates a serious issue: paying interest on national debt has become a heavy burden on finances in countries like the United States. The interest payments on US national debt have already exceeded military expenses.
The U.S. national debt has exceeded 39 trillion dollars.
At the level of social crises, there are numerous social upheavals in Western countries including the United States. The main issues involve a widening gap between the rich and the poor, as well as severe contradictions caused by unfair income distribution. In the United States, the wealth gap has reached historic levels, with the wealth of the richest 1% population exceeding the total wealth of the middle 60% of the population. Combined with issues such as illegal immigrants, refugees, religious differences, and racial tensions, these problems will lead to a growing crisis for Western society in the future.
Western countries are generally facing political crises, with political polarization and constant party strife. The ability of these nations to govern effectively is declining, and even actions like withdrawing troops are difficult to handle properly. The bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline during the Russo-Ukrainian conflict further reveals that the United States, as a hegemonic nation, no longer cares about the interests of its 'little brothers' allies. It's a typical example of 'friends can be sold off', and 'if one lives, so do others'. Does this not indicate that internal contradictions have become so severe that they can no longer take into account the interests of allies?
Perhaps a more profound impact lies in the cultural crisis. Currently, the ideas, concepts, and theories that prevail in Western societies are neither able to explain the current dilemmas nor to propose solutions. Looking back at our history, China also experienced a cultural crisis after the Xinhai Revolution. Has the West also fallen to such a state? Once a cultural crisis sets in, it may take thirty to sixty years, or even one hundred and eighty years, to emerge from it.
Since the 1980s, neoliberalism has spread worldwide under the promotion of the United States. However, it became unsustainable after 2008, leading to a shift towards populism, particularly right-wing populism. Trump, Modi, and others represent this trend. But populism also fails to address their problems, because no one dares to harm the interests of financial monopoly capital. In this situation, the West desperately needs reforms, but there is no way to carry out them—who would dare challenge Wall Street? The likely outcome of such a challenge would be impeachment.
Now the West is in a dilemma of "urgent reform, but no reform is possible". As a result, various contradictions will inevitably deepen, intensify, and interweave, making it very likely that Western countries will continue to move to the right. In fact, in some countries, the influence of politicians and parties with fascist and militarist tendencies is increasing. I am worried that the influence of individuals and parties with fascist tendencies will continue to expand, eventually penetrating several major countries. If this happens, humanity could face a catastrophic situation.
In this broader context, China's rise becomes of utmost importance in the world. The theory, path, system, and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics also hold immense significance for the future development of humanity.
In short, human society is at another crossroads: either being dragged into the abyss by capitalist logic, or taking the socialist path to create a new way forward, bringing hope for the future of human society.
