Less than a month before the US midterm elections, Trump suddenly announced that no new military strikes against Iran would be carried out for the time being.
According to reports by the British ‘Financial Times’ and Reuters on October 8 local time, US President Donald Trump posted on his social platform ‘RealSocial’ that the United States is engaged in ‘productive discussions’ with Iran. He stated that the US will not launch any attacks against Iran until after the mid-term elections in November 3rd. However, he also emphasized that the US will continue to impose sanctions on Iranian ports.
I want to make it clear to everyone that despite Iran currently being in a very difficult economic and military situation, with lockdowns continuing to be fully implemented... however, we will not attack Iran at any time before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd. Trump wrote.
He also claimed that last night, a record 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and not a single barrel came from or was sent to Iran. He again stated, “Iran will never possess nuclear weapons.” However, Reuters cited data from shipping company Kpler on the same day, stating that the transportation volume of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz had decreased by 27% compared to the peak during wartime, down to about 10.1 million barrels per day. This figure clearly differs from Trump’s claim of 22 million barrels per night.
Trump Posts: Real Social Networking
Before Trump made this statement, there were several incidents of oil tankers being attacked in the Gulf region. On the evening of October 7th, oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and near Oman were attacked by missiles. Coupled with the weakening of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices rose significantly on the 8th.
Since the military strikes against Iran by the United States and Israel in February this year, a months-long war has caused a global energy crisis. The rise in international oil prices has further increased the costs of fuel for Americans and their daily expenses. Today, this war has become a major political burden for the Republican Party during its mid-term elections.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that oil prices will drop significantly with the end of the war. However, with only a few weeks left until the mid-term elections, international oil prices are still hovering above $100 per barrel.
Reuters pointed out that the Iran war is undermining Trump's domestic support, and is also putting pressure on Republicans who are trying to retain their majority in Congress. A recent poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos showed that 60% of American respondents did not approve of the way Trump handled the Iran conflict.
The Financial Times believes that Trump’s statement on the 8th actually reflects the realization by the White House that, with less than a month left until the election, another attack on Iran could further harm the chances of Republican candidates.
According to the analysis in that report, the Republican Party is not only facing pressure to lose control of the House of Representatives, but there are also signs of increased competition for some seats in the Senate that were originally considered stable. According to the assessment by Cook Political Report, an independent political analysis organization in the United States, the competition in Senate elections in states such as Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas is worthy of attention.
However, just one day before Trump announced a suspension of military action against Iran, American media continued to report that the White House was planning to resume military operations.
According to a report in the American magazine The Atlantic Magazine on October 7th, the White House has asked the Pentagon to develop alternative plans for targeting Iran before the mid-term elections. The U.S. Central Command is also preparing for the possibility of resuming large-scale military operations.
American news website Axios subsequently revealed that the U.S. Department of Defense had instructed the Central Command several days ago to complete the necessary preparations. U.S. officials also informed the Israeli military about the possibility of resuming large-scale military operations against Iran in the coming weeks.
According to the Financial Times, since the end of August this year, the US military has carried out several attacks on Iranian targets. At the end of August, the US military bombed two Iranian rocket launch sites on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming that relevant Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel were preparing to launch rockets into the Strait and lay mines.
The newspaper reported that the last public acknowledgment by the US military of hitting Iranian targets occurred about a month ago. At that time, the US side claimed to have destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, stating that this was retaliation for an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard on American warships.
The U.S. government has not ruled out the possibility of expanding military actions after the mid-term elections. Trump himself has indicated several times that after the vote on November 3, the United States may still take further military action against Iran.
At the diplomatic level, the United States and Iran have been exchanging proposals regarding ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz over the past few weeks, but no agreement has been reached yet.
According to Reuters, Trump has previously rejected Iran’s latest cease-fire proposal. The United States demands Iran make substantial concessions on the nuclear issue, including restricting uranium enrichment activities and dealing with existing enriched uranium stockpiles. Iran, however, refuses to give up its right to uranium enrichment. Iran has consistently denied seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
According to The Associated Press, the Trump administration is still promoting indirect negotiations with Iran through envoys like Wrightcroft. Although Trump claimed that positive progress was made in the discussions between Washington and Tehran, the main differences on nuclear issues and the Gulf of Hormuz remain unresolved.
The United States' military deployments in Iran have not been halted due to Trump's recent remarks. According to The Associated Press, the U.S. military is expected to deploy the third aircraft carrier, the Theodore Roosevelt, in the Middle East by the end of October. The U.S. military will also continue to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports.
Trump's commitment on the 8th was explicitly limited to before the mid-term elections on November 3rd. He did not say whether military strikes would resume after the voting, nor did he announce the lifting of sanctions against Iran.
