The United States was once only one step away from directly sending troops into Iran.
On June 12, CNN reported that at the end of last month, the U.S. military developed a high-risk plan to send ground forces into Iran in order to seize its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The plan was submitted to U.S. President Donald Trump for review. However, after assessing the potential for strong retaliation from Iran, the possibility of a full-scale war, and the risk of heavy casualties among American troops, Trump ultimately canceled the plan.
Two people familiar with the matter revealed that Dan Kane, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even interrupted the meeting of NATO senior officials in Brussels, Belgium, on May 19th. He rushed back to the U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to receive a combat briefing in person.
Sources familiar with the matter say that such a high-profile and urgent meeting arrangement indicates that the Trump administration was very close to approving this high-risk ground combat operation.
According to one of the sources, Kane then reported the plan to Trump for the US military to enter Iran and seize high-enriched uranium.
However, after learning that this move was highly likely to provoke strong retaliation from Iran, lead to prolonged conflicts, and further impact the global economy, Trump decided to delay the action. Additionally, several people familiar with the situation said that Trump also feared that the action might result in heavy casualties among US military personnel.
"Risk is very high." A person familiar with relevant military plans said that he was not surprised by Trump's final lack of authorization to act.
Three people familiar with the matter said that if negotiations between the US and Iran collapse and war breaks out again, Iran is also prepared to resort to an economic “nuclear strike” measure – by using its main proxy force in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strait is also a crucial waterway. During Iran’s previous closure of the Hormuz Strait, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait played an important role as the entrance to the Red Sea and a vital shipping route worldwide.
Regardless of any circumstances, ensuring control over Iran's high-concentration uranium stockpiles remains a core objective for the Trump administration when addressing Iranian issues. However, regardless of whether through negotiation or military action, this objective has yet to be realized.
CNN reported that as the US military planned ground operations, Trump publicly stated several times that the United States and Iran were close to reaching an agreement regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. On the 11th local time, Trump also said that the United States could potentially sign an agreement with Iran this weekend.
On the 12th, a senior U.S. government official also revealed to U.S. media that Iran has agreed to destroy and remove nuclear materials, dismantle nuclear facilities, open the Strait of Hormuz, and stop funding proxy armed organizations. Only after these actions will the United States lift sanctions against Iran.
However, according to Iranian official media reports, Iran has a completely different view on the terms of the agreement. The report states that Iran will not agree to relinquishing control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any agreement must include the immediate thawing of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets overseas.
Meanwhile, CNN reported in another article on the 13th that five sources said Iran has significantly strengthened its security measures for its high-enriched uranium stockpiles over the past few weeks. They not only blew up some underground tunnels but also planted explosives and landmines at the entrances to prevent external forces from obtaining relevant nuclear materials.
These sources indicate that even in Iran, retrieving the buried high-enriched uranium would be a highly risky endeavor. Since some storage areas have been deliberately destroyed and mines have been laid, extracting the material requires large-scale excavation equipment and mine clearance operations, making both the technical difficulty and the risk of safety hazards very high.
Scott Rokell, who was responsible for the Nuclear Material Removal Office at the US National Nuclear Security Administration from 2017 to 2021, stated that if the reports are true, it will undoubtedly make the recovery of highly enriched uranium more complex.
He also warned that if the future agreement requires Iran to store all its uranium enrichment stocks in designated locations for inspection and removal, then the responsibility would lie with Iran. However, under such circumstances, Iran could potentially claim that some of the nuclear materials cannot be removed, thereby creating uncertainties for the inspection process.
"We will be unable to fully confirm whether Iran still has an opportunity to obtain these materials again in the future." Rokel said.
According to reports, it is widely believed that most of Iran’s high-enriched uranium stockpiles are stored in collapsed tunnels beneath the Isfahan nuclear facility, with a small amount of material scattered at other locations.
Iran's Isfahan Nuclear Facilities - Visual China
However, several nuclear experts question whether the US military could accurately locate these enriched uranium materials even if they launch military operations. Let alone safely and completely destroying all nuclear materials in a hostile environment. To effectively control these nuclear materials, the US military would need to deploy a large number of ground troops, including hundreds of special operations personnel.
“Searching through those underground tunnels and storage containers layer by layer will be extremely difficult,” said a source. “We will need to deploy a large number of people to provide support, which essentially amounts to launching an invasion.”
A person familiar with the assessment stated that U.S. military commanders consider such operations to be of a “high risk” or “very high risk” level among special forces’ acceptable risk categories. Even if the mission is successful, it could still result in significant casualties among U.S. troops.
Trump also previously acknowledged that there are significant risks involved in obtaining enriched uranium through military means. In an interview with the Fox News channel in May this year, he stated that the United States has “complete” control over the situation, but “no one can get close to it.”
CNN believes that even if the US and Iran sign an agreement within the next week, technical negotiations regarding the subsequent arrangements for the Iranian nuclear issue will continue. If the United States wants to transport highly enriched uranium out of Iran, it may need a specialized mobile uranium processing device, which is managed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, USA. US negotiators Steve Wertkow and Jared Kushner reportedly visited the laboratory earlier in June.
However, reports indicate that even with the use of the world’s most professional nuclear material disposal teams, the entire removal process will still take a considerable amount of time. Trump also stated to the media this month that it would take at least two weeks just to complete the transfer of nuclear materials.
