On October 17th, local time, Politico published a lengthy article revealing the urgent need for Roger Marshall, a Republican senator from Kansas, to be re-elected. The report indicated that Marshall would lose this “deep red state’s stronghold,” which has never fallen into the hands of Democrats since nearly a century ago. This possibility is causing significant anxiety among many Republicans in the state.
The latest poll shows that Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton are tied at 45% each, leaving the election situation in a stalemate. As the midterm elections approach in November, Kansas may be facing a major political upheaval.
In Politico's words, "The once insignificant Senate battleground has now become a real hindrance for the Republicans. The latest changes in the Senate election landscape are giving the Republicans a huge headache."
Roger Marshall
According to reports, Kansas has not given any of its senatorial seats to Democrats for 94 consecutive years. This agricultural region should be one of the most solid strongholds for the Republicans. However, it is this historical inertia that brings a sense of security, which has become the biggest obstacle to Marshall’s re-election.
Former Kansas Governor, Republican Mike Hayden, accused Marshall of "taking everything for granted" during an interview with Politico.
Hayden criticized Marshall for focusing most of his efforts on Washington and national television programs, making him almost ‘invisible’ in Kansas, and failing to truly engage with local voters. Due to his strong dissatisfaction with Marshall’s performance, Hayden has openly switched to supporting Hamilton.
The report also revealed that Republican leaders were aware of Marshall's weak performance from a long time ago. According to an anonymous source who was familiar with the conversations, senior party members repeatedly gave him serious warnings in private, urging him to get into campaign mode as soon as possible.
This person also said that Marshall seems to “never worry about this election”. Marshall’s latest report to the Federal Election Commission seems to confirm this: he only raised $86.6 thousand in the third quarter, while Hamilton raised $9.9 million.
Another Republican strategist, who has close ties to the White House and was allowed to speak anonymously, admitted that this election campaign is “a difficult battle.” He compared Marshall to “an old athlete who takes a long time to warm up and get ready for the game, and they didn’t start early enough.”
However, this strategist believes that the majority of undecided voters are Trump’s supporters and will ultimately return to the Republican Party. He said that Kanzarians “are just angry with Republicans, but they hate Democrats even more. Even though the Republicans in Washington are so anxious that they might wet their pants, those who really control the election campaign know this.”
Politico analyzes that the decoupling of the campaign rhythm might not be Marshall's biggest problem, as a string of precisely ignited negative scandals are dragging him into public opinion quagmire.
Firstly, there was a mistake made by the campaign team: they had to urgently modify their advertisements due to unauthorized use of photos from a camping site in Kansas. Subsequently, the team faced accusations of crossing the line by confusing the boundaries between official government offices and campaign offices. Further reports revealed that Marshall’s campaign team owed a local bakery for six years, and only after the scandal was exposed did they make immediate payments and apologize.
Two other incidents had the greatest impact: first, the property that Marshall purchased in Florida was exposed, leading voters to question how much time he actually spent serving the people of Kansas; second, a report by The New York Times revealed that during his time as an obstetrician, Marshall took legal action against hundreds of patients who did not pay their bills.
Although Marshall dismissed these accusations as "pure nonsense" and "left-wing media smear," these negative news were quickly exploited by opponents.
At a campaign rally this Monday, Hamilton stood on a bundle of hay in the shade of a park, shouting to his supporters that the people of Kansas deserved a senator who wasn't just someone who "spent time with family in Florida" and then "came out for photos."
He also questioned, "When people are sick and don't have health insurance, do we really need to sue them, arrest them, or even put them in prison, just like Roger Marshall did?"
