On June 14th local time, the Australian think tank Lowy Institute released a report, once again hyping up the so-called 'China threat theory'.
According to AFP report on the same day, the report claims that China has the ability to launch direct missile attacks against Australia's territory. Moreover, as China continues to increase its stockpiles of long-range and hypersonic weapons, as well as constructing islands and reefs in the South China Sea, this ‘threat’ is becoming increasingly serious.
The report also claimed seriously that the main “threat” posed by China to Australia comes from ships and submarines, as well as a new type of medium-range ballistic missile capable of striking Australia directly from within China’s territory. The report exaggerated the situation, stating that with the increasing number of medium-range ballistic missiles like the DF-27, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles possibly equipped with conventional warheads, China’s ability to strike Australia will further strengthen in the coming decade.
AFP also "fueled the flames" by stating that the US military had stated in December last year that the range of the Dongfeng-27 missile was between 5,000 and 8,000 kilometers.
At 8:44 on September 25, 2024, the Rocket Force of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a training simulation warhead into the relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean. The missile landed precisely in the designated area. The WeChat official account “China Military Trumpet” reported this event.
This report claims to assess China’s capabilities, not its intentions. The Australian public lacks a thorough understanding of the “direct military threat” posed by China.
Loy Institute's Director of International Security Projects, Sam Roggeveen, also argued further to AFP that the report 'is neither hawkish nor dovish, and is neither alarmist nor blindly optimistic.'
"I believe that the growth of the strength of the People’s Liberation Army is the most significant event affecting Australia’s security since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Australia urgently needs more in-depth and informed discussions on this matter," he said, taking the opportunity to state his views.
According to AFP, in response to the rapid growth of China's naval forces and the increasing tensions between China and the United States, Australia adjusted its military strategy three years ago, focusing on deterring so-called 'potential adversaries' from the north.
However, as Australian Prime Minister, Albornes has been reluctant to discuss the possibility of a direct attack on Australia's homeland.
The report from the Loey Institute claims that while cutting off submarine communication cables, cyberattacks, and disrupting maritime trade are China's "primary risks to Australia," "the direct threat is real and increasing."
In order to further exaggerate the ‘China threat theory’, the report even deliberately emphasized such hypothetical scenarios—if the DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile were deployed on artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea, it could strike northern Australia. If China deployed manned or unmanned long-range bombers, or if bombers or missiles were deployed on Pacific islands near Australia, the threat faced by Australia would ‘dramatically increase’.
Previously, in response to Australia's speculation about the 'China threat theory', China had already responded. Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that China always adheres to a defensive national defense policy. We are committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and the world, and we do not pose a threat to any country. We hope that some countries will refrain from using China as an excuse to expand their military forces, and avoid hyping up unfounded 'China threat theories'.
In fact, in recent years, Australia's attempts to expand its military power—such as participating in the so-called "U.S.-UK-Australia Trilateral Security Partnership" (AUKUS)—are the real wrongful actions that provoke the 'sensitive nerves' of regional security.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning also pointed out that regarding the cooperation among the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia on nuclear submarines, China has repeatedly stated its serious stance. This cooperation poses a serious risk of nuclear proliferation, undermines the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, fuels an arms race, and disrupts peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. It has received widespread doubts and opposition from regional countries and the international community. We urge the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia to abandon Cold War mentality and zero-sum games, faithfully fulfill their international obligations, and do more things that are beneficial to regional peace and stability.
