On the Ukrainian battlefield, a seemingly simple "speed limit" is prompting Europe to rethink a issue that has been discussed for years: What will happen to Europe if Starlink becomes unusable someday?
On October 14, the Ukrainian side reported that the satellite communication service provided by SpaceX encountered new speed restrictions in Ukraine. Serhiy Beskrestnov, a advisor to the Ukrainian president, stated that some drones equipped with Starlink terminals experienced connection issues when their speed exceeded about 100 miles per hour, which is equivalent to 160 kilometers per hour. The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Ukrainian army reported that some devices experienced intermittent disconnections lasting 10 to 20 seconds, making it difficult to control the drones. As a result, some tasks were canceled.
One day later, the situation became even more sensitive. Reuters reported that what was actually restricted in Ukraine were military versions of “Star Shield”, with instructions coming from within the White House. Musk also stated that the speed limits of “Star Shield” are controlled by the U.S. government.
For Europe, a real risk has been brought to the table: a communication system that relies heavily on external suppliers could potentially affect drones, military communications, and even the entire combat system, even without a complete network interruption.
Five days later, on October 19th, four of Europe's largest telecommunications operators—Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica, and Vodafone—jointly announced the signing of a letter of intent to study jointly bidding for the spectrum for future mobile satellite services in the EU, and to develop Direct-to-Device services, which involve direct connection of ordinary mobile phones to satellites.
Four companies unusually emphasized three words in their announcements: European sovereignty, security, and resilience.
They plan to jointly establish a ground network in Europe, as well as key coordination and monitoring systems. The aim is to enhance the resilience of public networks, protect critical communications, and “support the development of a European satellite constellation”. The four companies will not manufacture satellites themselves; instead, they will choose a satellite operator as their partner in the future.
But the question is, does Europe really have the capability to build an independent satellite constellation?
From a time perspective, it is easy to reach a conclusion: Ukraine has speed limits in place, and European operators immediately joined forces to oppose Starlink.
Real life isn’t that simple.
This collaboration involving four multinational operators, the EU spectrum system, and satellite network architecture cannot be completed within five days. The EU proposed a redesign of the 2GHz mobile satellite spectrum authorization system in May this year. The current system will expire in May 2027. The European Commission has even clearly identified this spectrum as a strategic asset with both “commercial, security, and defense” value.
So, the Ukraine incident is not the starting point, but it is likely to be the most persuasive catalyst.
It transformed "strategic autonomy," which has been repeatedly discussed in Europe for years, from an abstract concept into a very concrete issue:
If Starlink really becomes unusable, does Europe have a second network?
The answer to this question is not "no".
Europe already has a ready-made low-earth orbit satellite network in its hands—OneWeb under Eutelsat.
OneWeb currently has approximately 600 low-orbit satellites. It is one of the few large commercial LEO constellations that have achieved global coverage, aside from Starlink. It is also the only network in Europe that can immediately take on some functions of Starlink.
After this incident in Ukraine, the market immediately recognized its strategic value.
On October 16th, Eutelsat’s stock price increased by about 20% in a single day, with a cumulative increase of 31% for the week. Jean-François Fallacher, CEO of Eutelsat, revealed that the company’s available satellite capacity in Ukraine has been sold out. OneWeb has deployed thousands of terminals in local areas, some of which can continue to function in environments with GPS interference.
This precisely proves two things at the same time.
Firstly, OneWeb is not just a PPT. It is indeed capable of providing autonomous low-orbit satellite communication in a wartime environment for Europe.
Secondly, the current OneWeb solution is simply insufficient.
If Europe really needs to replace Starlink in a large scale in a short period of time, there are significant differences in terms of satellite capacity, number of terminals, and network density.
Starlink currently has over 7,800 satellites in orbit, with more than 6 million active users worldwide. In just the past year, SpaceX has carried out more than 100 Starlink launch missions, adding over 2,300 new satellites to the constellation.
In other words, the number of new satellites added by Starlink in the past year is nearly four times the size of the existing OneWeb constellation.
So the real issue in Europe is not whether there will be One Web, but:
Can OneWeb be expanded from an enterprise and government communication network with six hundred satellites into a infrastructure capable of serving as Europe's strategic backup network?
The answer is actually more optimistic than many people think.
This year, Europe has already started large-scale supplementary teaching programs.
In September, Eutelsat announced that it would purchase an additional 229 new-generation OneWeb low-earth orbit satellites from Airbus. Together with the previously ordered 440 satellites, Airbus will manufacture a total of 669 new OneWeb satellites in the future.
The addition of 229 new satellites is expected to require an investment of approximately 1 billion euros. This investment will continue to support the replenishment, updates, and expansion of the OneWeb network until 2034.
This is not a distant plan.
On October 2nd, the first batch of 32 new-generation OneWeb satellites were launched at Airbus’ facility in Toulouse. Airbus has specifically moved its satellite production capacity back to Europe, and has emphasized that it now has the capability to manufacture low-orbit satellites in large quantities and at high pace.
What does 669 represent?
This is basically equivalent to re-creating the entire OneWeb system today.
And the real long-term plans for Europe go beyond this.
In August this year, the European Union and the SpaceRISE alliance finally signed an implementation agreement for IRIS², officially moving Europe’s next-generation sovereign satellite constellation into the full deployment phase.
The latest plan includes 330 low-earth orbit satellites and 18 medium-earth orbit satellites, for a total of 348 satellites.
Among them, Eutelsat oversees a significant portion of the low-earth orbit constellation, including 264 satellites with both military Ka and commercial Ku frequency capabilities, as well as 66 satellites enhanced for military Ka frequency use.
Eutelsat plans to invest 2.23 billion euros in the shared infrastructure for IRIS² between 2027 and 2034. Additionally, it will invest 1.16 billion euros in the commercial communication segment, bringing the total investment to 3.39 billion euros. In return, the company will gain satellite capacity that is more than twice that of OneWeb's current offering.
Therefore, Europe has now formed a rather clear line...
Currently, OneWeb is responsible for this task. The newly purchased 669 satellites will be used for the transition period, while IRIS² will handle matters related to the 2030s.
This can no longer be simply understood as “does Europe want to build a Starlink?”
Europe has actually started manufacturing them.
But having satellites alone is not enough.
What truly makes Starlink terrifying is not just the existence of over 7,800 satellites in space, but rather the fact that SpaceX has established a vertical system that extends from space all the way to consumers.
Design satellites by oneself, mass-produce satellites, launch them using Falcon 9, operate the network by oneself, produce terminals by oneself, and finally charge consumers directly.
After the rise of D2D, this model is even being pushed further towards the hinterlands of traditional mobile operators.
Satellites no longer need dedicated satellite antennas; they can directly become ordinary "space base stations" on top of ordinary mobile phones.
These are the real dangers for traditional operators like Orange and Vodafone.
If Vodafone purchases Starlink capacity and incorporates satellite services into its mobile phone packages, then Starlink will merely be a upstream supplier.
But if consumers can bypass Vodafone and directly purchase Starlink’s satellite mobile communication service in the future, then Starlink will become a competitor to its supplier.
