Recently, both Russia and Ukraine confirmed that negotiations among Russia, the United States, and Ukraine will resume in November. However, today Russia has downgraded its expectations for the situation to the outside world.
On October 25 local time, Russian President's Assistant Ushakov stated that Russia is preparing to resume tripartite negotiations between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine after November 4, the “National Unity Day” in Russia. He also emphasized that the next round of contacts is still preliminary in nature, and no overly high expectations should be placed. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy previously indicated that the participants in the tripartite negotiations have agreed to hold technical talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, during the first half of November.
Another remark made by Ushakov that day might be even more noteworthy: Russia now believes that Europe must also participate in the peace process.
According to him, after the 2025 US-Russia Anchorage Summit, Russia initially believed that the Trump administration might have the ability to pressure Kiev and force Ukraine to accept the agreement. However, it turned out that this approach was ineffective. The reason is that ‘it is not enough to only talk with Kiev; we also need to talk with the entire Europe,’ because Europe continues to fully support Ukraine.
This sentence actually points out the most structural contradiction in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine over the past year.
When the Trump administration resumes contacts with Russia in 2025, the initial plan is for Washington to negotiate directly with Moscow. During the first high-level meeting between the US and Russia in Riyadh in February 2025, Ukraine and Europe were not even present. Europeans at that time feared being excluded from negotiations that determine European security.
But more than a year later, it became clear that the United States can push for negotiations, but it cannot unilaterally “deliver” a peace agreement.
Firstly, Europe has become an important support for Ukraine in continuing its military efforts and maintaining the country's operations. Data updated by a research department of the European Parliament in October shows that since 2022, the EU and its member states have mobilized approximately 224.5 billion euros in financial, military, and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. By 2025, the total amount of aid provided by Europe has surpassed that of the United States, especially after a significant decline in U.S. assistance.
Secondly, even if Russia and the United States can reach an agreement on the ceasefire line, post-war arrangements will still involve Europe. The European Union has clearly stated its intention to participate in providing long-term security support for Ukraine. The plan formulated in January this year even includes a multi-national force led by Europe, long-term military equipment and training support, as well as commitments to provide military, intelligence, and logistical assistance in case of another attack on Ukraine.
Moreover, decisions regarding sanctions against Russia, the freezing of Russian assets, and the future substantial financial aid for Ukraine are all in the hands of Europe. In October, the EU reiterated its commitment to maintaining pressure on Russia and has already introduced the 21st round of sanctions against Russia.
Therefore, Russia’s current statement that “it is necessary to talk with Europe” does not mean that Moscow has suddenly accepted European positions. On the contrary, what Russia really wants to discuss is likely how to limit Europe’s continued military involvement in Ukraine after the war, how to remove sanctions.
On October 22, Putin expanded the goals of the next round of negotiations from simply establishing a ceasefire to addressing 'the security systems of Russia, Ukraine, and even Europe as a whole'. In other words, Moscow is not just talking about who will occupy certain territories, but rather about who can provide weapons to Ukrainian forces after the war, and what kind of security boundaries should be established between Russia and NATO in the future.
This also means that Europe's re-entry into the negotiation framework may not lead to faster peace.
In the past, the problem was that there were too few participants. Even if the United States reached an agreement with Russia, it might not be possible for Ukraine and Europe to implement such an agreement. In the future, the problem could be that there will be more participants, and there will also be more red lines for all parties involved.
But at least one thing is becoming clearer: the Russia-Ukraine war has reached a point where Moscow is beginning to recognize that a truly implementable peace agreement cannot be decided solely by Washington and Moscow.
