Japan wants to extend its military influence into Southeast Asia, and the Philippines is becoming an important stronghold.
On October 28, Japan's Defense Minister Shinzo Abe held intensive meetings in Cebu, Philippines with the defense chiefs of the United States and the Philippines. The Japanese and American sides claim to further strengthen their defense cooperation along the First Island Chain. Japan and the Philippines have agreed to advance negotiations on the transfer of retired frigates and agreements for the protection of military secrets. The defense chiefs of the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines also met to discuss expanding joint exercises and defense collaboration.
Several talks seem to have different topics, but they all point towards a common change: the US and Japan are trying to strengthen military connections from the southern islands of Japan to the Philippines. The Philippines, located at the southern end of this chain of islands, is increasingly being drawn deeper into this arrangement.
Why did Japan choose the Philippines? What role does the Philippines plan to play in the military network led by the US and Japan?
Military expert Zhang Junshe told the Observer Network that Japan is trying to use the Philippines as a fulcrum to normalize, institutionalize, and make its military presence in Southeast Asia more active. The Philippines, meanwhile, is gradually turning from being a party to the South China Sea issues into an important channel for external military forces to intervene in regional affairs.
October 29th, ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting was held in Suzhou. Visual China
On the morning of October 28th, Koichiro Koizumi held a conversation of about 30 minutes with U.S. Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld in Surabaya.
According to the Japanese Defense Ministry, both parties agreed to accelerate the enhancement of the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-US alliance. Koizumi proposed that Japan would strengthen its so-called 'deactivating defense forces'. The two parties also agreed to expand the use of Japanese Self-Defense Forces and US military forces on each other’s military facilities, strengthen joint military presence in southwestern Japan, and promote joint training exercises, including shooting exercises that have not been carried out before.
Additionally, both parties agreed to establish final assembly and testing facilities for advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles in Japan. Koizumi also informed the American side about Japan's plans to revise the "Security Three Documents" within this year.
Japan's "Security Three Documents" revised in 2022 proposed the development of so-called "countermeasures capabilities". Now, Japan is also preparing to strengthen its " deterrence defense forces ". The further shift in its military policy has attracted attention.
Zhang Junshu believes that Japan's current efforts to strengthen its ties with the Philippines are primarily aimed at expanding the Japan-US alliance into Southeast Asia. At the same time, it seeks to make its own security policies more practical through external military cooperation.
Japan hopes to leverage external military cooperation to break through the limitations of the pacifist constitution and promote Japan's re-militarization.
He pointed out that Japan is trying to connect the Southwestern Islands, the surrounding areas of Taiwan Island, and the Philippines, in order to strengthen surveillance and blockades of key waterways such as the Miyako Strait and the Baboon Strait.
Regarding why the choice of the Philippines was made, Zhang Junshe believes that the key lies in its unique geographical location.
The Philippines is located at the intersection of the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific Ocean. It borders the Busular Strait and Taiwan Island to the north, the South China Sea to the west, and the Pacific Ocean to the east. Japan's increased military cooperation with the Philippines can extend its military forces further towards the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, establishing a connection with its deployments in the East China Sea.
In addition, the Philippines has opened several military facilities for use by the US military. Japan, through the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral framework, strengthens its military activities and can utilize the existing cooperation between the US and the Philippines to reduce coordination costs.
Zhang Junshe analyzed that the Philippines can also serve as a base for Japan to conduct radar surveillance, logistical support for ships and aircraft, joint training, and intelligence cooperation, thereby reducing the cost of deploying military forces towards the southwest.
In his view, the Philippines has become an important hub for Japan to connect the US-Japan alliance with the Southeast Asian security network.
The specific progress of the Japan-Filipina cooperation also provides an opportunity to observe this judgment.
After meeting with Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro on the 28th, both sides issued a joint statement. In this statement, they not only fabricated accusations against China regarding the situations in the East China Sea and South China Sea, but also confirmed the progress of several military cooperation arrangements.
According to the statement, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces participated in live missile firing training during the Philippine ‘Shoulder-to-Shoulder’ exercise in May this year, in accordance with the Japan-Philippines Mutual Access Agreement. The Japan-Philippines Mutual Supply of Goods and Services Agreement, which came into effect in August, was also utilized for the first time during the bilateral exercise in October, with the Philippine Air Force providing supplies to the Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces.
The two sides will also promote negotiations on military confidentiality agreements and strive to transfer the first Armatobu-class frigate to the Philippines as soon as possible after it is retired in the next few years. The Japanese side will provide training for the Philippine navy in advance and coordinate subsequent maintenance and support work.
From joint training, logistical support to intelligence protection, Japan's military cooperation with the Philippines has clearly gone beyond simply providing equipment.
According to information released by the Japanese Defense Ministry on the 29th, the defense ministers of Japan, the United States, Australia, and Philippines agreed to further promote cooperation through policy consultations and joint drills. Koizumi also volunteered to strengthen policy coordination among the four countries.
Zhang Junshi believes that the frequent meetings between the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines during the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting series have strengthened cooperation along the First Island Chain, reflecting a significant change in the role of the Philippines.
The Philippines can be said to be shifting from being a participant in regional cooperation mechanisms to becoming a hub where external military forces intervene in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.
He pointed out that the Philippines was originally a party to the South China Sea issue. Now, with the continuous intervention of countries like the United States and Japan, it is gradually becoming an important passage for extraterritorial military forces to enter the South China Sea.
It is particularly concerning that the United States, Japan, and Philippines are attempting to tie together the security issues related to the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea.
They aimed to shape a "three-sea integrated" framework through military means. Zhang Junshe stated that the Philippines is being incorporated into a US-Japan-led military cooperation network, becoming an important node on the southern end of the first island chain.
In his view, this multi-directional pressure exerted by military means seriously undermines China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests. It also undermines trust among regional countries and interferes with their efforts to maintain peace and stability independently.
The intervention of forces from Japan, the US, and other countries outside the region has been an important factor in influencing regional peace and stability. It is also a key driving force behind the militarization of the South China Sea. Zhang Jun said.
For the Philippines, obtaining more foreign military equipment, training opportunities, and commitments for security cooperation may be in line with the short-term interests of Manila authorities. However, the deeper the military cooperation, the greater the risks it may entail.
Zhang Junshi warned that if the Philippines becomes a frontline node in the military arrangements of external powers, and if the regional situation deteriorates or even military conflicts occur, the relevant military bases and infrastructure within the country may face direct military risks.
At the same time, deeply binding with foreign military alliances will also reduce the diplomatic options of the Philippines, affecting its normal cooperation with neighboring countries.
"The Philippines' partnership with extraterrestrial military forces in a bind-style cooperation is difficult to truly elevate its security level, and may even push it into a security predicament." Zhang Jun said.
It is worth noting that Koizumi’s trip to the Philippines did not limit itself to only the United States and Philippines. On October 28th, he also held talks with the defense ministers of Vietnam, Singapore, and other countries, discussing further deepening of defense cooperation.
In this regard, Japan and Vietnam confirmed their intention to continue advancing discussions on defense equipment cooperation, including exploring the possibility of joint research and production of high-speed landing ships. Japan and Vietnam also discussed expanding naval cooperation and exploring opportunities for collaboration in the fields of army, air force, and defense equipment.
However, initiating specific defense cooperation does not mean that these countries are willing to join military alliances against China. The security interests and foreign relations of ASEAN countries vary, so there is still uncertainty as to whether Japan can replicate its cooperation model with the Philippines with other countries.
Zhang Junshe believes that regional countries generally hope to maintain peace and stability, and they do not want to see Cold War mentality and group confrontation introduced into the Asia-Pacific region.
"Extraterritorial forces have introduced cold-war mentality and group confrontation into the Asia-Pacific region, which goes against the common desire of regional countries to maintain peace and stability. They do not receive the support or approval of the majority of countries in the region."
