As the U.S. midterm elections approach, NATO allies in Europe are worried that if the Republicans lose the election, Trump might use NATO to “vent his anger,” and even withdraw thousands of U.S. troops from Europe.
According to a report by the European edition of the American "Political News Network" on November 3rd, five NATO diplomats revealed that European allies are preparing for the worst-case scenario that could occur during the US mid-term elections. They fear that if the Democrats take control of Congress, Trump will be constrained in domestic policy decisions. This situation could instead lead to a focus on foreign and military affairs, where greater autonomy is possible. By taking tougher measures against NATO, Trump could strengthen his political legacy.
A senior European defense official said that the U.S. President in the “lame duck” phase typically exhibits characteristics of combining "expressing dissatisfaction with diplomatic adventurism," and attacking NATO "seems to be a constant element in Trump's worldview."
He might get very angry."A North Atlantic Treaty Organization diplomat said if that's the case, Trump's attitude towards European allies would become "very tough."
Currently, the Republican Party in the United States is facing unfavorable election conditions, and Trump’s personal popularity has also fallen to a low. Previously, the United States cut off its ‘Starlink’ satellite service to Ukraine. Additionally, a few weeks before the elections, Trump re-negotiated relations with Russian President Putin, which further increased European concerns about a shift in U.S. policy.
European allies are most worried about the upcoming review of the U.S. military deployment in Europe.
This review is expected to release its results before December. Three NATO diplomats believe that if the Republican Party suffers a major defeat in the midterm elections, Trump may expand the originally planned withdrawal to appease the supporters of his “Make America Great Again” campaign.
According to Oana Rengjesku, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute and a former NATO official, Trump might also use the continued presence of troops in Europe as a bargaining chip in negotiations, demanding that Europe accept peace agreements with Ukraine supported by the United States.
She warned that adjustments to military forces stationed in Europe, the issue of Ukraine, and the European security order could be included in Trump’s broader negotiations with Putin, thereby creating a “very dangerous situation” for European security.
In addition to withdrawing troops, NATO diplomats also worry that Trump may reduce the United States' contribution to the NATO common budget, limit the procurement mechanism for weapons on the “Ukraine Priority List” supported by NATO, and even further strengthen relations with Russia.
The personnel changes in the U.S. Department of Defense may also affect related decisions.
According to ‘Political News Network’, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel has caused dissatisfaction in Congress by refusing to regularly inform members of Congress about defense budgets and military operations. If the Democrats gain control of Congress, they may investigate issues such as his dismissal of dozens of senior officers and the unsuccessful progress of the war against Iran.
Reports cite speculation that Hagee might even resign as a result. However, if there is a change in leadership at the Pentagon, the withdrawal plan from Europe could be delayed by weeks or even months.
Currently, U.S. law sets a minimum of 76,000 military personnel stationed in Europe and America. Theoretically, once the Democrats control Congress, they can use their legislative and funding powers to restrict Trump from adjusting military deployments.
But U.S. think tank "National Defense Priority" senior researcher Jennifer Cavaना expressed doubt about this. She believes that the lower limit of military personnel may face legal review, and the Trump administration had previously ignored congressional appropriations guidelines and court rulings.
Kavana pointed out that if the United States withdraws from Europe on a large scale, the areas where European allies will have difficulty filling are electronic warfare, air defense, intelligence reconnaissance, aerial refueling, and certain logistical support capabilities.
However, some officials from NATO member countries believe that the threats made by Trump should not be overinterpreted by the outside world.
Montenegro's Defense Minister Krapovic said that there have been speculations about Trump's withdrawal from NATO, but it has not become a reality yet. He believes that the final decision to reduce troops stationed in Europe and America is still subject to congressional approval.
In response to concerns from European allies, White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wilso said that Trump’s contributions to NATO exceeded those of any other person. She cited measures such as promoting allies to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and strengthening U.S. military presence in Greenland.
But she also emphasized that Trump still believes that NATO allies should have provided support during the US war against Iran.
Wales said that Trump will not accept the Western 'man-made decline', and will continue to unhesitatingly defend the interests of the United States both domestically and internationally.
Regarding what Trump will do next, a NATO diplomat expressed doubt to "Political News Network".
"If you want to make predictions with a high probability of success, the study object must be a person capable of making rational decisions." "In my opinion, the current US president does not meet this condition."
