According to a report by The New York Times on July 25, U.S. President Donald Trump has at least temporarily put aside plans to escalate military strikes against Iran. Senior officials in the U.S. government are particularly concerned that further escalation of the conflict will excessively deplete the "Patriot" anti-missile missiles and other air defense ammunition deployed by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Middle East. These air defense weapons are already in short supply, increasing the risks faced by the U.S. military in the event of Iranian retaliation.
American officials said that the urgent need to replenish the stock of interceptor missiles is just one of many considerations. Restarting large-scale combat operations itself carries significant risks. Trump and his senior advisors are also worried that if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, it could lead to retaliation from Iran against American Gulf allies, damaging relations between the United States and these allies. Additionally, this situation could put more pressure on the global economy, energy supply, and refugee issues.
Two people familiar with the matter revealed that Trump's adjustment of his strategy for dealing with the conflict in Iran stemmed from a meeting he held with key advisors and senior cabinet officials on the 24th.
A US official who declined to be named said that the core issue of this closed-door consultation was the continuous reduction in the US’ stockpile of ‘Patriot’ interceptor missiles and other air defense weapons.
A senior U.S. official confirmed that three U.S. soldiers were killed in Jordan. At that time, Iran launched attacks with missiles and drones, and one ballistic missile broke through the U.S. air defense network.
According to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency in Iran, on July 25, Maj. Gen. Mohibi, a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, announced in a statement the numbers of American military losses suffered by Iran. He stated that during these 15 days of fighting, the Iranian armed forces destroyed 11 American fighter jets and helicopters stationed at regional bases, as well as 17 reconnaissance and combat drones.
Officials revealed that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kean, has privately advised the president that launching a large-scale military operation against Iran is technically feasible, but it would significantly deplete the interceptor ammunition available to the U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East. Kean's spokesperson refused to comment on his advice to the president.
White House Spokesperson Steven Zhang stated: "The President has always been clear in his stance, preferring to resolve disputes through diplomatic means. However, if Iran continues to carry out terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies in the Strait of Hormuz, all countermeasures will always be available." He added that Iran has already faced severe sanctions and multiple military strikes. "A wise move would be to reach an agreement through negotiations; otherwise, the consequences are obvious."
This nearly five-month war with Iran has made it difficult for Trump to finalize a subsequent plan. The main challenge is how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past two weeks, conflicts have resumed between the two sides, leading to a surge in international oil prices. Diplomatic efforts have failed, and the U.S. previous large-scale airstrikes have not been able to deter Iran militarily.
Two people familiar with the matter said that almost no one within Trump’s core staff approved the plan for escalating military actions. Another senior U.S. official, also speaking anonymously, questioned whether resuming large-scale combat operations would force Iran back to the negotiating table.
The official said bluntly that the effect of the airstrikes completely deviated from the original intention: instead, it strengthened the cohesion within Iran, allowing the Iranian leadership to focus the public’s attention on external threats.
On the 25th, the conflict between the United States and Iran saw a significant cooling for the first time in two weeks. The U.S. military finally announced no nighttime strikes that day, but the tense situation did not ease. In Yemen, Saudi-backed armed groups clashed with Houthi forces supported by Iran.
Before the meeting on the 24th, Trump sent a signal that the military could launch more powerful attacks as soon as instructions were given, while still leaving room for diplomatic solutions.
"To be honest, we have all the ammunition ready and are on standby at any time," Trump told reporters after lunch that day. "We can launch immediately, but we are still in communication with the other party, and the situation may turn a corner or it may not."
The closed meeting on the 24th came at a critical juncture for US policy towards Iran: a previous fragile cease-fire memorandum aimed at bringing the US and Iran back to the negotiation table and finalizing a long-term nuclear disarmament agreement had become ineffective.
Earlier this week, several Department of Defense officials and U.S. military area commanders revealed that Trump is inclined to approve the initial phase of a phased bombing plan. The targets include Iranian coastal radars, anti-ship missile launch facilities, small attack crafts, and other facilities deemed by the Department of Defense to be relevant for disrupting shipping traffic in the Strait.
To deal with a possible escalation of the conflict, the U.S. military has recently urgently deployed more troops, weapons, and logistical supplies to the Middle East. The U.S. also continues to destroy numerous Iranian civil railway bridges, and accuses these bridges of being used by the Iranian military to transport combat supplies along the southern coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is also considering expanding the scope of its attacks, adding Iranian nuclear targets including the Yao Mountain nuclear facility.
An Iranian senior security official told Iran News TV: “Trump wants to create political achievements by attacking the Zafarshan facility in Iran. But it is well known that attacking an empty warehouse only serves to create false information, with no benefit for reality.” He emphasized that any attack on Zafarshan would be doomed to failure, as the defense of the facility is extremely strong. “More importantly, the facility is currently empty.”
On the 23rd, Trump revealed some of the discussions held during meetings in an interview with the Axios news site: "I am considering launching a unprecedented-scale operation, and the decision is almost finalized. All preparatory work is in place."
But by the evening of the 24th, Trump temporarily put aside the plan for a large-scale bombing. To a large extent, the assessment by military advisors that ammunition stocks had been exhausted convinced him: U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE had been frequently targeted by Iranian fire over the past two weeks, leaving their remaining anti-aircraft ammunition at risk. If a major offensive were to be launched, Iran would likely retaliate severely, putting greater pressure on the U.S. air defense systems.
The New York Times reported in late April, citing internal assessments from the U.S. Department of Defense and information from congressional officials, that the U.S. military had already used over 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in this conflict. Each missile costs more than $4 million, and their inventory has dropped to a worrying level. Military officials said this week that the shortage of ammunition has worsened since then.
Several advisors, including Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, proposed a less risky alternative to Trump: sustained diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions, aiming to force Iran to make concessions in a gradual manner.
It is currently unclear whether any negotiations are underway, and whether these negotiations could bridge the clear differences within the Iranian government regarding whether to sign the agreement.
Analysts point out that the United States' recent reimposition of maritime blockades against Iranian ports has had mixed results. U.S. officials said that after the signing of the memorandum of understanding in mid-June, Iran was able to resume some crude oil exports, mainly to China. These oils are currently arriving at ports one by one, and it will take some time for the effects of the economic pressure from the United States to become apparent.
On the 24th, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against 9 companies and 4 individuals within the commercial network of Iranian financial tycoon Babak Zanjani. Babak Zanjani himself is already on the US sanctions list.
