According to a report by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post on September 20th, a former Australian defense official recently defended the AUKUS nuclear submarine project by using neighboring Indonesia as a 'potential enemy', which caused dissatisfaction among Indonesian defense officials. Analysts said this approach is considered 'clumsy diplomacy' and could potentially reignite long-standing tensions between the two countries.
The statement was made by Michael Pezzullo, former Deputy Secretary for Strategic Affairs of the Australian Ministry of Defence. On February 2nd, during his testimony in an independent public inquiry regarding the AUKUS agreement, he attempted to explain why nuclear-powered submarines could help Australia gain a military advantage underwater.
Pezulo imagined a scenario where Indonesia, being aggressive, would confront other nations. He said that if war broke out, the Australian military would seek to “rapidly destroy as much of the enemy’s combat forces as possible,” without needing to ask for help from the United States or other allies.
These remarks quickly reached Jakarta. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a researcher at the Abu Dhabi Rabdan Security and Defense Research Institute, revealed that Indonesian defense officials were "discontent" with these remarks and have informally reported the matter to Australia.
"When relations between two countries are good, it is best not to publicly name who might be a potential enemy. Rahkman said directly, "This is clumsy diplomacy."
Unfortunately, just 7 months ago, Australia and Indonesia signed an important security cooperation agreement. This agreement pledged to hold regular high-level consultations regarding regional and national security challenges, as well as to expand defense cooperation through joint military training and other forms of collaboration.
There is indeed a rift in the security and mutual trust between Australia and Indonesia. At the end of the last century, the East Timor issue led to a decline in bilateral relations between the two countries. In 2013, former US intelligence officer Snowden revealed that Australian intelligence agencies had eavesdropped on the phone of then-Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. As a result, Jakarta recalled its ambassador to Australia and temporarily suspended bilateral cooperation.
However, Gatra Priyandita, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, believes that the Indonesian defense ministry is unlikely to consider itself as the real target of the AUKUS deal. In recent years, both countries have frequently conducted joint exercises, carried out military training, and exchanged personnel, indicating that their security relations are based more on cooperation than on mutual deterrence.
Reports say that compared to Peccei’s theory of ‘supposed rivals’, Jakarta’s more realistic concerns regarding AUKUS involve nuclear-powered submarines themselves, including the potential impact on fisheries and the marine environment in case of an accident.
Indonesia's Lecturer in International Relations at Pasamaidan University, Febry Triantama, pointed out that as a country that adheres to the policies of 'non-alignment' and 'freeactive' diplomacy, Indonesia is particularly concerned about the spillover effects of major power conflicts. If China and the AUKUS countries come into conflict in the future, the strategic location of the Indonesian archipelago's waterways could make it vulnerable to being involved in conflicts, and there is even a risk of being targeted by foreign military reconnaissance.
Lahmann also reminded that Australia must understand Indonesia's strategic culture. While Jakarta conducts military exercises with Australia and the United States, it also continues to engage in joint exercises and defense cooperation with China and Russia. Such multi-faceted interactions are indeed part of Indonesia's foreign policy.
In fact, doubts regarding whether the AUKUS deal could exacerbate regional tensions, weaken Australia’s strategic autonomy, or even draw it into major powers’ conflicts have been growing within Australia in recent times.
Just two days ago, former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating once again harshly criticized AUKUS. He warned that Australia is being locked into a war against China, which could be led by the United States, and that the United States would “definitely lose” in such a war.
In Keating's view, if the war fails, the United States could simply "retreat to San Diego", leaving Australia to face the consequences alone. He also criticized the deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines and other military forces in Australia, arguing that this not only increases Australia's risk of becoming a target, but also further erodes its strategic autonomy.
