The leaders of China and the United States are scheduled to meet at the White House this week, and this news seems to have caused concern among Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Muto.
According to the Hong Kong 'South China Morning Post', during the general debate of the United Nations General Assembly this week, Koike Makiko will meet with Trump in New York on September 22 local time. Analysts believe that Koike's contact with Trump before the Sino-US summit may be aimed at preventing the US from making concessions that are 'unfavorable to Japan'.
It is expected that Goto will focus on discussing Japan's investment commitments to the United States during the meeting. As part of the US-Japan tariff agreement, Japan has committed to investing $550 billion in the United States. A senior Japanese official revealed that the Goto government plans to invest in 17 strategic areas, including artificial intelligence and semiconductors, through both public and private investment projects, in order to create new business opportunities in the United States.
Analysts believe that the Japanese government, worried about the United States making “compromises” with China, may also use these talks to test the US views on issues related to China, discuss matters concerning China’s export controls on rare metals, and present Japan’s position to the United States.
According to Kenichi Toguri, a senior researcher at the Japan Institute of Geopolitical Economics, the most concerning issue for the Japanese government is that Trump may make concessions to China without sufficient coordination with its allies. Japan also fears that Trump might use the meeting between Chinese and American leaders to pressure Japan, demanding concessions in areas such as defense responsibilities, costs associated with U.S. military bases in Japan, or exchange rate issues.
He analyzed that the Japanese government wants to avoid reaching an agreement between the United States and China that would sacrifice Japan’s economic security or regional deterrence.
China has implemented strict export controls on dual-use items destined for Japan. Since China controls 90% of the world’s rare earth processing capacity and at least 60% of rare earth mining capacity, it has a significant influence in this field. Therefore, Moriichika believes that the issue of rare earths will also be a topic of focus during discussions between Gao and Trump.
Tsuchiya stated that Japan seeks a more stable supply of rare earths and other critical materials. Ohtsiri tried to persuade the United States to consider China's export controls as a “supply chain issue for the entire US-Japan alliance,” because these restrictions may have spillover effects through Japanese production processes, thereby affecting related industries in the United States.
On March 19, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Akamine met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House.
It is expected that Gao will also test the United States' stance on the Taiwan Strait issue. Sean Kim, senior vice president of the US business consulting firm Parker Strategy, believes that Gao is “uneasy” about the Trump administration's delay in military sales to Taiwan. She wants to see whether the meeting between China and the US will further influence Trump's stance on the Taiwan Strait issue.
Several sources recently revealed that Trump is considering various options to delay the signing of the military sales agreement with Taiwan. It is possible that the major military sales to Taiwan could be postponed until after the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November.
The South China Morning Post pointed out that since Trump began his second term, the Japanese government has been adopting a strategy of ‘preemptive meetings’, aiming to maintain personal relations with Trump before the crucial negotiations between the United States and China take place, in order to secure US commitments. For example, before Trump’s visit to China in May, Yoshihoko Koike visited the United States in March and held bilateral talks at the White House.
According to Tsuchiya's analysis, at this critical moment when the US and Chinese leaders will meet, if there are significant differences between the US and Japan, it will weaken Trump's bargaining power in diplomatic negotiations. It is unlikely that Trump will escalate the tensions between the US and Japan for some 'minor interests.' He stated that Koumoto and Trump may demonstrate 'consistency' in US-Japan policies by meeting ahead of time.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated at a regular press conference on September 21 that premier diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic role in Sino-US relations. The visits between the two heads of state within half a year are historic and significant. China is willing to work with the United States to enrich the content of constructive strategic stability relations between the two countries, strengthen dialogue and cooperation, properly manage differences, continuously improve the well-being of the people of both countries, and promote world peace, stability, and prosperity.
Regarding whether the meeting between Chinese and American leaders will discuss restrictions on Japanese rare earth exports, Guo Jiakun responded that China, in accordance with laws and regulations, prohibits exports of all dual-use items to Japan for military users, military purposes, or any exports that could help enhance Japan’s military power. The purpose is to prevent Japan from “re-militarizing” and pursuing nuclear ambitions. China's stance on maintaining the stability and security of the global supply chain for key minerals remains unchanged. At the same time, all parties have a responsibility to play a constructive role in this regard.
