According to several US media reports, the United States and Israel are drafting a plan to carry out a large-scale strike against Iran after the November mid-term elections in the US.
According to sources familiar with the matter, The New York Times reported on October 21 local time that U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu this week to discuss the possibility of resuming attacks against Iran. Potential targets include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, as well as missile and drone deployment sites.
American officials have repeatedly claimed that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has been “on the verge of collapse,” but Iran is “deliberately delaying the conflict” in order to disrupt the Republican Party’s chances in the mid-term elections. Trump promised last month that once the elections were over, the Iranian regime would “soon give in.”
If Yumi restarts the attack, it may ruin this expectation.
Reports suggest that some American officials have suggested launching a high-intensity, limited-scale operation to accelerate the collapse of the Iranian economy. These officials hope that a severe blow will make Iran more willing to sit at the negotiating table. Trump has also agreed with this assessment.
Last week, Trump revealed to Newsmax TV that he is considering taking further military action against Iran, including targeting the buried nuclear facilities at Natanz. Other reports suggest that he is considering using the GBU-43/B large airburst bomb, commonly known as the "bomb mother," weighing 21,600 pounds.
He added that this conflict will soon come to an end, either through negotiations or as the situation escalates.
The report mentions that the Houthi militia, which allies with Iran, is engaged in escalating conflicts with Saudi and Yemeni government forces. These conflicts could potentially escalate into a crisis affecting a large region, making it difficult for all parties to withdraw from the situation.
Analysts say that the Houthi militant group's attacks on Saudi airports and facilities, along with its attempt to block shipping in the Gulf of Aden, could lead to the United States deploying troops directly to support Saudi Arabia. Trump mentioned earlier this month that the U.S. “may” cooperate with Saudi Arabia to strike against the Houthi group, but such an action has not yet taken place.
Israel's general elections on October 27 further increase the risk of new military actions. Even if Netanyahu loses the election, he will continue to serve in his position before the formation of a new government. During the transition period, the cabinet still has the authority to order military strikes.
According to analysts cited by the magazine 'Time', Netanyahu may use the expectation of a joint attack to push for the formation of a joint government, in order to retain power.
As the war progresses, Iran's reluctance to make concessions to the US has become even more pronounced. Iranian leaders reiterated this week that they will not engage directly with the US unless the US fulfills certain prerequisites, including lifting the maritime blockade and unfreezing Iranian frozen assets.
Last month, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard announced a call for American voters to reclaim their decision-making power from their own governments. The announcement read: "Even if the enemy imposes great hardships upon us, we will continue to fight, just as we have done for the past 47 years."
A analysis by the non-partisan research institution Suffren Center in New York on October 1 pointed out that both the United States and Iran believe they have sufficient leverage to achieve their goals. This mutual confrontation has hindered the implementation of any agreement.
Iran's key strategy is to block the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's militarization in the region disrupts the supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, driving up international energy prices and exacerbating inflation.
Analysts told Time magazine that high oil prices will become a political burden for Trump. In recent weeks, more and more Republicans have drifted away from Trump on the Iran issue, and Trump’s support rate has dropped to a low during his second term in office.
Iranian officials revealed to The New York Times that they have obtained information about the US-Iran combat plan and are formulating countermeasures.
Earlier this week, Hossein Mohebi, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview with the Tehran Times that even if the US carried out limited attacks, it would trigger a severe global energy crisis. Ismail Bagey, a spokesman for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that if ‘Hou’shan’ is attacked, Iran will respond with equal or even stronger measures.
Earlier this month, Iranian officials stated that they had prepared a countermeasure plan, breaking out of the predictions of the United States and Israel.
Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezai told Iranian television that once the strike is resumed, Iran can include new targets in its attack list: data centers in the Gulf region associated with the United States, artificial intelligence facilities, and submarine communication cables.
Last month, Iran also warned that if the US continued its attacks, Iran would target US oil and gas assets in the Gulf region.
