Israeli parliamentary elections are approaching, and US President Trump has publicly supported Prime Minister Netanyahu, but there are differing opinions within his government.
According to a report by the American news website Axios on October 24th, several senior advisors around Trump are increasingly dissatisfied with Netanyahu. Some even believe that if Netanyahu loses the election and a new Israeli government is formed, it might be more beneficial for the United States to promote its policies in the Middle East. Vice President Pence also did not follow in Trump's footsteps and publicly supported Netanyahu.
Trump, after several weeks of hesitation, finally announced on October 18th his support for Netanyahu's re-election in the election on the 27th. He even hinted that if Netanyahu were to lose the election, relations between the United States and Israel might be affected.
However, sources familiar with the matter revealed that many of Trump’s key advisors opposed this decision, arguing that he should not interfere in Israeli elections.
A Trump advisor said when discussing the relationship between President Trump and Netanyahu, "He's a devil that Trump is familiar with."
Trump has never worked with any Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu, and he is not familiar with the other candidates in this election. Although the two are close, they often have disagreements.
A U.S. official believes that Trump's public endorsement will not cost him anything, regardless of the outcome. If Netanyahu wins or continues to serve as the caretaker prime minister, Trump can claim that he helped Netanyahu through political difficulties, and use this as leverage to demand concessions from Netanyahu.
If the opposition succeeds in forming a government, the new leader will also need to maintain good relations with Trump. The support that Trump gave Netanyahu will soon be downplayed.
Differences within the Trump administration have been evident in the statements made by Vice President Pence.
When asked about the Israeli elections this week, Vance stated clearly: "I am not attacking Bibi Netanyahu, nor do I support Bibi Netanyahu. I believe that the endorsement by the president is ultimately what matters most."
In April this year, Vance publicly supported former Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán just before he lost the election. Now, however, he has stated that he will no longer get involved in foreign elections.
According to Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, Vance was one of the senior Trump officials who were disappointed with Netanyahu during the war against Iran. Vance and other senior advisors believed that Netanyahu's assessment provided to the White House before the war was incorrect, and they began to question whether he remained a suitable partner for implementing Trump's Middle East goals.
This discontent is not limited to the Iranian issue.
In the past six months, several senior advisors of Trump have grown increasingly divided from the Netanyahu government regarding issues such as those in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and the West Bank.
Trump's two special envoys, Wietkow and Kushner, were dissatisfied with Netanyahu's reluctance to pursue the implementation of the peace plan in Gaza.
Ambassador Barak, who handles Syrian affairs, holds differing views on Israel's approach to dealing with Damascus and the ongoing military actions in Syria by Israel.
Secretary of State Rubio and his team have a relatively good relationship with Netanyahu. However, they believe that Israel should take more measures to support the Lebanese government. At the same time, they are disappointed by Netanyahu's failure to effectively stop the attacks by Jewish settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank.
Some American officials say that if Israel's new government no longer includes Netanyahu's current far-right allies, it would be easier for the United States to cooperate with them.
Trump will also have to make military decisions regarding Iran in the future.
Axios pointed out that as Israeli elections and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd approach, Trump must consider whether to collaborate with Netanyahu to launch another large-scale military operation against Iran. Netanyahu is eager to pursue this plan, but the results of the Israeli elections could influence Trump’s decision, at least in terms of scheduling a new round of military operations.
Meanwhile, Trump also hopes to advance a peace plan for Gaza, facilitate agreements between Israel and Lebanon and Syria, and ultimately normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Whether Netanyahu can continue to hold power remains highly uncertain at present.
According to final pre-election surveys released by three major Israeli television networks on October 23, Nataniahu’s coalition is expected to win only 50 seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament, which is 17 fewer than the current ruling coalition. Among them, Nataniahu’s Likud coalition is expected to win 20 seats, lower than the current 32 seats.
The opposition coalition, led by former Chief of General Staff Ezer Kote and expected to gain 52 to 56 seats, along with two Arab-Israeli political parties expected to gain 14 to 16 seats.
However, Israel’s Channel 14, which supports Netanyahu, had previously made a completely different prediction, stating that Netanyahu’s camp would receive 60 seats, with the Likud group holding 30 of those seats.
According to Israel's electoral system, forming a government requires obtaining at least 61 parliamentary seats. Current polls show that neither Netanyahu nor Ehkenot have a clear path to forming a government.
Ehzon Kot has previously ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition government with Arab-Israeli political parties. If these parties seek external support for a minority government, some of their potential allies have also expressed opposition.
As for Netanyahu and the opposition forming a joint government, it is also considered highly unlikely at present.
If neither side can form a government, Israel may be forced to hold elections again, and Netanyahu will continue to serve as the prime minister of the caretaker government.
Axios pointed out that this election may not lead to a new government that is more willing to cooperate with Trump’s Middle East agenda. Trump will likely still face Netanyahu, who has weakened political influence, as well as another long-term political deadlock in Israel.
