On October 25th local time, the results of the Brazilian presidential election were announced. The Liberal candidate Flavio Bolsonaro was defeated by the current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Less than 48 hours later, the candidate who received 48.21% of the votes fled to the United States.
This scene is similar to the one where its father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, fled Florida after losing the election in 2022. It also adds uncertainty to the political situation in Brazil and the relations between Brazil and the United States.
On October 27th, local time, Brazilian Liberal Party representative Maurício Maçon posted a video on social media, stating that Bruno Bolsonaro had departed to 'seek refuge in the United States', and said that he would continue to 'lead the opposition' in the US.
According to the Brazilian news site 247, Roberto Bolsonaro has arrived in the United States. On the 27th, he met with his brother, the dismissed Brazilian federal congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, and their families in Florida. He plans to hold a press conference to explain the reasons for his departure from Brazil.
On the 26th local time, the Brazilian Supreme Court issued a travel ban over a money laundering case involving approximately $905 million and operated by a gambling company. The court ordered the confiscation of Roberto Bettoni’s passport and required him to surrender it to federal police within 24 hours. On that day, Bettoni publicly stated, "I never thought about leaving this country," but he did not appear on the morning of the 27th. It was later revealed that he flew to the United States via Argentina and Ecuador with his wife and two daughters.
When talking about the fact that Betto Boconeiro essentially admitted his defeat on the 26th, an close advisor to the Boconeiro family said, "Flavio has already admitted defeat. He is terrified. He worries that his father will die in prison, that he himself will be sent to jail this week, and that he, being young, will have to face a long period of imprisonment."
The Financial Times described this escape as a "dramatic turn of events" for the Bosonaro family. "Before 7 p.m. on Sunday, young Bosonaro was convinced that he would become the next president."
The report indicates that Bocornio’s escape is likely to lead to the Bocornio family losing control over the right-wing political parties in Congress. It will also intensify the retaliation from the hardliners, who insist that their family is a victim of political persecution and have previously tried to impeach Supreme Court justices.
According to The Guardian, Magna Inácio, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Brazil, believes that there will be a power vacuum within the Brazilian right-wing camp. “Brazilian voters refuse to give victory to this more extreme faction, and the leadership of the right-wing has now become a target of contention among many.”
Political scholar Camila Rocha, who studies Brazil's new right-wing politics, believes that if the core members of the Bosonaro family gradually withdraw from power, the family's current authority may no longer be tied to blood relations, and 'it will gradually fall out of control with their sons.'
The report also mentioned that Roberto Bosiñano didn’t possess his father’s personal appeal. During his 24 years in politics, he introduced very few laws. In 2016, when he ran for mayor of Rio de Janeiro, he fainted during a televised debate and ended up finishing fourth in the election. Analysts believe that his 48.21% of the votes came from those who were anti-Lula, as well as those who simply followed the choice of their former president Roberto Bosiñano.
On October 17th, local time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he supported the decision to allow Eduardo Bozo Naldo, who has yet to acknowledge his defeat in the election, to enter the United States. A senior U.S. State Department official previously indicated that the U.S. would issue entry visas to Eduardo Bozo Naldo and his family.
Trump said to the media on that day that Bosonaro's family was "all very nice people," and that the Brazilian elections were "very strange" and "terrible." He also said that former President Bosonaro had been "treated terribly." However, he stated that he "did not take sides or participate in the Brazilian elections. Those are Brazilian affairs, a country apart."
The Argentine newspaper "La Nación" refers to the United States as a "safe haven" for the Bosonaro family. It cites statements indicating that the Trump administration helped young Bosonaro escape and may have approved his asylum request.
According to the newspaper’s comparison, Bolsonaro last visited the United States at the end of May, still in the role of a senator. This time, he arrived in the United States as a “person suspected of being a fugitive”, blatantly violating the exit ban and preparing to apply for political asylum to the Trump administration.
In fact, the Bosonaro family has a precedent for their 'path dependence' towards the United States.
This time, the flight of Betinho is similar to his father's actions after losing the election in 2022. At that time, old Betinho also fled to Florida. Later, he returned to Brazil and became the first former president in the country's history to be convicted for planning a coup, receiving a sentence of 27 years in prison.
Little Bozonaro's brother, Eduardo, is also in self-imposed exile in Texas. Previously, he was sentenced to four years in prison for lobbying Trump to impose sanctions on the judge who tried his father’s case and attempting to interfere with the trial. He also faces an arrest order in Brazil.
From father to two sons, Florida and Texas became the homes of this family, while Washington was repeatedly put in opposition to the Brazilian judicial process.
Regarding this incident, Maisea Pratts, a doctor of social policy in Brazil and former researcher at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, told Observer.net that among the variables affecting this situation, the relationship between Brazil and the United States is the source of greatest uncertainty. If Trump continues to pursue policies that interfere with Brazil’s internal affairs and economy, the risk of Brazil facing new rounds of trade sanctions will significantly increase.
An article in the European magazine 'Modern Diplomacy' pointed out that Trump's public support has added another layer to the already tense relations between the two countries. This could lead to Brazil's domestic investigations evolving into diplomatic confrontations involving judicial independence and political interference.
The article analyzes that for Brazil, this case is related to judicial authority, opposition politics, and public confidence in the electoral process. For the United States, it tests the balance between "selling asylum to foreign politicians" and "avoiding interference in other countries' affairs." The departure of Roberto Borboza does not resolve the disputes surrounding the election; instead, it shifts the confrontation onto the international stage. Brazil's legal procedures and the relationship between Washington and the Borboza family will determine the next phase of bilateral relations.
Xiao Boso's escape relieved Lu La's new term of office of its most direct political pressure.
The head of the campaign team for Roberto Marquezini, Senator Rojero Marini, told The Guardian that he was surprised to hear about his escape: "Yesterday we were still discussing how Flavio should take on the role of opposition leader after receiving 6 million votes... After all, a considerable portion of the population in the country has voted for us."
Without a leader, the Brazilian Liberal Party has already acknowledged Lula's victory. Many of its allies have also distanced themselves from Roberto Bebianno. The opposition candidate's withdrawal was essentially a way for Lula to promote post-election agenda and win over center voters.
As Lula Sobral was imprisoned for coup-related crimes, Eduardo went into exile in Texas, and Lula Sobral Jr. went to Florida, the family that once united Brazil's right-wing with a single flag has lost its central coordinating power. The family members who remain in Brazil will also face internal strife over the political legacy.
Iñasio pointed out that the political plans of Lobo Sáncho’s wife, Michelle, are likely to face strong resistance from their two stepchildren. “The conflict between them is only a matter of time.”
Victory did not erase the scars of Brazil.
Pratts said that Brazil is still in a state of deep division. Nearly half of the voters cast their ballots for Betinho, and some Betinho supporters are filled with 'strong hatred and anger'. During the election campaign, there were extreme incidents where Lula's supporters were killed or seriously injured.
She mentioned that since Brazil restored democracy, this parliament has been the most conservative one. Since the Lula camp does not have a majority in parliament, fulfilling the election promises will be extremely difficult. In the next four years, to implement Lula’s new policies, continuous civil mobilization and the support of social organizations will be essential.
The spillover effects of this situation may also affect businesses in Brazil and China. Platts pointed out that there is a close relationship between Trump and the Bozo Naro family, and the direction of Brazilian-U.S. relations will have an impact on the Brazilian economy, thereby affecting foreign capital, including Chinese investments.
However, the foundation of China-Brazil cooperation has not been shaken by this departure. In Praltes’ view, Lula’s re-election sends a “positive signal” to Chinese enterprises, indicating that bilateral relations have continuity. Brazil is willing to maintain cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, and technology research and development, providing policy continuity for long-term investments. “Considering the trend of continuous expansion in renewable energy and electric vehicles, I believe that the growth of trade between China and Brazil will continue in the future. Brazil’s diverse and independent foreign policy will not undermine its cooperative relationship with China.”
Being pragmatic towards China has become a consensus among Brazil's political parties. Prates pointed out that China's foreign investment scale has surpassed that of the United States, and the idea of 'boycotting cooperation with China' is no longer appropriate for inclusion in Brazil's government policy agenda.
Haver Vadell, an associate professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Minas Gerais in Brazil, also told the Observer Network that there is no rigid unity within the conservative camp. Many factions hope to cooperate with China, and there will be no substantial shift in their positions.
He pointed out that the most important signal of Lula's victory is that the productive and mutually beneficial bilateral relations between China and Brazil will continue. This also means that Chinese enterprises will have a predictable planning period in the future. After Lula's victory, the prospects for Chinese investments in Brazil remain 'expansionary'. Brazil can also learn from its relations with China, plan its own industrialization development path, and diversify its export categories.
