On June 14th, U.S. President Trump posted a statement on social media, stating that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to open the Hormuz Strait. In the early morning of June 15th, Iran also confirmed that a memorandum of understanding for a cease-fire between Iran and the United States had been reached, and stated that the formal signing ceremony would take place in Switzerland on the 19th.
As one of the initiators of this conflict, Israel has been largely excluded from US-Iran negotiations. At present, the full details of the US-Iran agreement have not been announced, and the situation in Israel is already in turmoil.
The New York Times reported on the 14th that the terms of the agreement, disclosed by various media outlets before Sunday’s announcement, have sparked criticism and dissatisfaction among various Israeli political factions. They generally believe that the agreement does not address Iran’s ‘basic security threat’ to Israel.
Over the past year, Israel has launched two wars against Iran. The most recent one was a military operation jointly carried out with the US forces in late February. However, currently, Israel is not involved in negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran, and is excluded from the peace process.
U.S. and Iranian officials previously stated that, according to a preliminary memorandum of understanding, Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the global economy, while the U.S. will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. The cease-fire agreement reached by both parties in April will be extended for 60 days. During this period, both sides will work towards detailed negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the U.S. cancellation of sanctions against Iran.
According to a report by Reuters on the 14th, an Iranian official revealed that based on the draft memorandum of understanding, the United States agreed not to impose any new sanctions against Iran until a final agreement is reached. After the final agreement is made, all sanctions imposed by the United States and the United Nations against Iran will be lifted according to the agreed schedule. The United States will grant Iran exemptions from oil sanctions for a specified period, allowing Tehran to sell oil and earn revenue. The draft also mentions that the United States agreed to unfreeze $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets.
The New York Times reports that the terms of the US-Israel agreement differ significantly from Israel's objectives at the start of both wars.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially stated that his goal was to “eliminate threats to Israel’s survival”. This meant destroying any nuclear threats from Iran, as well as its ballistic missile program, and “creating conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow their government”.
Trump and Netanyahu, Israeli government website
In addition, Israel demands that Tehran stop supporting proxy armed groups hostile to Israel, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Facing the disclosed terms of the agreement, Israeli experts are deeply worried, as issues that are crucial to Israel’s security were not mentioned at all in the agreement.
An anonymous Israeli individual who received a summary of the US-Israel agreement listed key objections by Israel regarding the agreement:
Firstly, there is no clear plan on how to deal with Iran’s existing uranium enrichment stockpile, and the constraints on Iran’s nuclear program are also insufficient. The agreement seems to rely entirely on Iran’s goodwill.
Secondly, the agreement not only fails to create conditions for the collapse of the Iranian government, but instead will allow funds to flow back into Iran’s treasury.
Third, the agreement does not establish a clear mechanism to compel Iran to cease supporting its agents, but it does require Israel to suspend military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In a few days after the military strikes against Iran by the United States and Israel at the end of February, Hezbollah in Lebanon fired at Israel. Iran insists that any broader peace agreements must address the Lebanese conflict. Israel has been trying to prevent its agreements with Iran from being directly linked to its military operations against Hezbollah. However, it seems that Israel’s influence is limited at present.
The New York Times reported that Israeli mainstream media, Haaretz, summarized the headline of its "news" section with the phrase "bad deal", reflecting the general sentiment in Israel regarding the US-Israel agreement.
Jacob Nagle, who served as Netanyahu's acting national security advisor, said: "Whatever happens, President Trump will declare a victory, a complete victory."
Nagel stated in a video briefing on the 14th that among the details of the agreement that are currently being circulated publicly, issues such as Iranian ballistic missiles and armed forces supported by Iran were not even included in the negotiation list.
Netanyahu's opponents are even more sharp in their rhetoric.
"From an Israeli perspective, this is a catastrophe," wrote former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman on social media. Liberman was formerly a friend of Netanyahu, and now he is a harsh critic of him.
Israeli Parliament opposes party leaders, former Prime Minister Yair Lapid's statement, that he hoped the reports about an agreement with Iran were not true. "If the reports are true, it will be one of Israel's most shocking failures in foreign and security policy."
Current Israeli government officials are choosing silence out of fear of angering Trump.
According to a statement by a senior Israeli official quoted by the New York Times website on the 13th, the memorandum of understanding that is expected to be signed between the United States and Iran on the 14th ‘is not a good agreement’.
"No one is happy about this," the official said. "We understand that it's unfavorable for us and harms Israel. What makes it so difficult is that Israel cannot impact it, its voice has not been heard."
Israel’s national elections are expected to take place in late October this year. Netanyahu is under tremendous pressure from critics within the ruling coalition and outside the government, who demand that he not comply with Trump’s instructions.
However, The New York Times pointed out that Netanyahu has been reluctant to openly oppose Trump, largely because he has always regarded the close relationship between the two of them as one of his most important political assets.
However, just as the media reported that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement, Netanyahu was once again criticized by Trump.
On the 14th, Israel launched attacks on Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Trump was particularly angry about Israel's disruption of his agenda. In an interview with the American media Axios, he said, "That's terrible—I can't believe it. Just one hour before we were scheduled to sign the agreement."
"Bibi (Netanyahu's nickname) Why did you launch this attack on XX? I was furious at the time, and I made him understand that he has no judgment. He needs to know this." Trump said.
