The United States is promoting the restoration of Russian natural gas exports to Europe through Ukraine, as part of efforts to facilitate an 'energy ceasefire' agreement between Russia and Ukraine before winter arrives. In this arrangement, American companies may play a role as intermediaries, earning substantial profits from the trade in Russian natural gas.
According to a report by the US Wall Street Journal on November 1st, local time, several officials from the United States, Europe, and Ukraine revealed that the U.S. government is supporting the rapid restoration of Russian natural gas transportation through pipelines within Ukraine to Europe. The hope is that this will create conditions for negotiations on a ceasefire in the energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine.
According to reports, U.S. special envoy Steve Wetkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner proposed this idea during their visits to Moscow and Kyiv in September this year. According to those involved in the discussions, the plan would involve American intermediaries purchasing Russian natural gas and then selling it to European customers, attempting to find new trading arrangements for the resumption of energy trade between Russia and Europe.
However, this proposal has encountered strong resistance in several European countries.
According to reports, the US proposal also involves setting up third-party custodial accounts, into which part of the funds generated from Russia’s natural gas sales would be deposited. This would limit the use of those funds for military purposes. In exchange, Ukraine could regain revenue from natural gas transit transportation, while Europe would have access to energy supplies at lower prices.
In fact, the pipeline transportation of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine will cease on January 1, 2025. At that time, the five-year natural gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine will expire, and Ukraine has refused to renew it.
Unlike the previously damaged "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, the relevant gas pipelines within Ukraine are still largely intact. This means that once all parties involved reach an agreement, the supply of natural gas is expected to be restored relatively quickly.
The biggest obstacle isn't in the technical level, but in European policy stance.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has continuously reduced its dependence on Russian energy. According to The Wall Street Journal, currently only about 11% of the natural gas used in Europe comes from Russia, which is far below the 45% level before the conflict began. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas from the United States accounts for 30% of Europe's natural gas consumption.
Currently, Russian natural gas is mainly transported via liquefied natural gas carriers, and through the TurkStream natural gas pipeline to Europe. The TurkStream pipeline supplies gas to countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.
On January 26 this year, the Council of the European Union officially adopted regulations to gradually ban the import of Russian natural gas. The restrictions came into effect on March 1, and a transition period was established for existing contracts. According to the regulations, the European Union will completely ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas under long-term contracts starting from January 1, 2027. In principle, the import of Russian pipeline natural gas under long-term contracts will be banned starting from September 30, 2027. Under special circumstances, this date can be postponed to November 1.
European leaders have repeatedly stated that they have no intention of reverting to relying on Russian energy supplies. EU officials for energy affairs also advocate a permanent ban on Russian natural gas imports.
This means that even if natural gas is resold through American intermediaries, its Russian origin and existing EU import restrictions remain legal issues that must be addressed. Changing the transaction party alone will not necessarily circumvent the ban.
However, the rising energy costs in Europe are testing its determination to get rid of Russian natural gas.
The Wall Street Journal points out that the supply of liquefied natural gas from Qatar has been affected by the war launched by the Trump administration against Iran, leading to continued increases in global energy prices. The European Union estimates that this war has resulted in an additional €100 billion in energy expenditures for Europe. At the same time, storage capacities of underground natural gas facilities in Europe account for approximately 75% of their total capacity, which is lower than the average level observed during the past nine years.
European officials acknowledge that these pressures could weaken Europe’s position in refusing to resume imports of Russian natural gas. Germany’s largest opposition party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), has also made the resumption of imports of cheap Russian natural gas one of its key political objectives.
According to reports, a senior U.S. official stated that Europe shows interest in programs that could significantly reduce natural gas prices. However, these economic arrangements must be included in a more comprehensive peace agreement, rather than being merely conditions for a partial ceasefire. If Ukraine agrees to resume natural gas transit under the ceasefire arrangements, political resistance to European changes in position may also decrease.
The United States is promoting the restoration of Russian natural gas exports, which is also closely related to the military actions carried out by both Russia and Ukraine in recent times regarding energy infrastructure.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in October of this year, under pressure from the Trump administration, Ukraine suspended attacks on Russian refineries for nearly two weeks. During this period, Russia continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration reached a diesel supply arrangement with Russia, allowing Russian diesel to enter the US market. Subsequently, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refining facilities, causing energy ceasefire issues to re-urge.
As winter approaches, the threats to Ukraine's energy facilities are becoming increasingly severe. Continuous attacks on energy facilities could lead to widespread power outages in Ukraine's major cities, and trigger another wave of refugee outflows.
Currently, the United States is seeking to facilitate a broader ceasefire arrangement for energy facilities before the planned trilateral negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi in November.
Additionally, reports indicate that the US also considers the potential reopening of the ‘North Stream’ natural gas pipeline as a possible component of a broader agreement. This agreement could not only be related to ending the conflict in Ukraine, but could also serve as an opportunity to smooth relations between Russia and Europe.
However, unlike the Ukrainian gas transmission network, which can be restored relatively quickly, the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline has been severely damaged. Even if political and regulatory obstacles can be overcome, the repair work will still take a considerable amount of time.
The Russian side also had reservations about a simple cease-fire agreement. According to a report by the Russian Business Consultation Daily (RBC) on November 2, the Kremlin emphasized that what Russia needs is peace, not a temporary cease-fire.
For the United States, restoring Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine could serve as a bargaining chip in facilitating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and it could also bring commercial benefits to American companies. However, this idea still faces European legal restrictions and political resistance. As winter approaches, whether the pressure on energy supply will lead to compromises on this issue remains uncertain.
