After the Democrats achieved an overwhelming victory in the U.S. midterm elections, what changes will occur regarding issues related to Taiwan under the Democratic-controlled Congress?
Shao Yujun, Director of the Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau Research Institute at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and a senior researcher at the American Studies Center, told The South China Morning Post: 'The Democratic-controlled congress will increase pressure on Trump to accelerate the approval of military sales to Taiwan worth $14 billion. At the same time, various bills will be introduced to demonstrate support for Taiwan and prevent Trump from 'selling out Taiwan.'
The Democrats gained control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in Tuesday's elections, marking a significant defeat for Republicans and Trump. This has turned Trump into a "crippled duck" president, facing strong congressional opposition to his policies in the last two years of his presidency.
However, Shao Yujun pointed out: "The U.S. Congress has long been a stronghold for pro-Taiwan forces. Political changes within the Congress usually have limited impact on its Taiwan policy."
Professor Shi Yin Hong of China People's University International Relations Department said, "In the next two years, the possibility of the US increasing its military support for Taiwan is rising. Congress may push for stronger military aid to Taiwan, mainly in terms of arms sales."
Both analysts believe that the new House Speaker could lead to new tensions in Sino-US relations due to the Taiwan issue.
Shi Yin Hong stated: "During Biden's administration, the Democratic Party has displayed a clear and undeniable military support for Taiwan. Whether whoever assumes the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives from the Democratic Party takes such action is not a question."
Jeffries has always maintained close contact with the leaders of Taiwan region. In March 2023, he met with former Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen during her visit to New York; in December 2024, he spoke on the phone with leader Lai Ching-te to discuss security and economic partnerships.
Shào Yù Qun said, “This is not the first time China mainland has faced a pro-Taiwan US House Speaker. If the newly appointed Speaker pushes any legislation related to Taiwan that touches on Beijing's red lines and bottom line, Beijing will undoubtedly take decisive countermeasures.”
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly emphasized that China's position of firmly opposing the sale of weapons by the United States to Taiwan region is consistent and clear.
